Kentucky Derby scenario

[Gerard02]

In all the Kentucky Derbies run from 2000 thru 2017, we have seen the winners of the Florida Derby, SA Derby and Arkansas Derby finish in the money. Superfecta as well. Here is a question for all of you to consider.
Is it possible to see Audible, Justify and Magnum Moon run out of the money?
Another thought. Could any of them run out of 4th? This would leave Vino Rosso to Battle Bolt D’Oro, Mendelssohn, and Hofburg. In my mind, I can’t see this nightmare scenario coming to fruition. Statistically, it would be a first to my knowledge. I came up with some wild wager scenarios. Some include all three horses in combos. Others without them. I’m just throwing spitballs, but better to get this one out there, now, rather then a couple of days before the race.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Wait for the post draw and see who is next to who.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

In all the Kentucky Derbies run from 2000 thru 2017, we have seen the winners of the Florida Derby, SA Derby and Arkansas Derby finish in the money. Superfecta as well. Here is a question for all of you to consider.
Is it possible to see Audible, Justify and Magnum Moon run out of the money?
Another thought. Could any of them run out of 4th? This would leave Vino Rosso to Battle Bolt D’Oro, Mendelssohn, and Hofburg. In my mind, I can’t see this nightmare scenario coming to fruition. Statistically, it would be a first to my knowledge. I came up with some wild wager scenarios. Some include all three horses in combos. Others without them. I’m just throwing spitballs, but better to get this one out there, now, rather then a couple of days before the race.

With Audible, I find it less than 50% chance he will not at least be in the super. There are really no marks against him other than Into Mischief being both a Storm Cat and a Sprinter. The stats for Storm Cats are worse than the Florida derby is good. And we don't really know about Into Mischief's influence, but his sister was ok at 10f.

I'm going to abstain about Justify. It's not worth the grief. However, there are three things that may or may not be big deals: his extension, Baffert choosing to ship late, and Baffert not working him like he has worked his other derby contenders. The extension was mentioned by Jeff Siegal, the late shipping and the work change up has been discussed at Thorograph. I'm no leg action action expert, but after Siegal mentioned in passing that long extension like his is more turf than dirt, I watch his workout from today, then watched in succession Fager's mile, the Bid's Strub, and Secretariat's Derby, then watched him again, and they are clearly quite different from his, tight and digging. YMMV.

Magnum Moon has a lot of furlongs in him right now, he'll be on his 5th straint race in 5 months, and he went from straight from 115lbs to 122lbs and ran slower and drifted out badly, he certainly wasn't Bodemeister or Curlin. Of the three, I'd say he is the most likely to finish up the track.

[Tom]

Magnum Moon has run Beyers of 95-88-97-98. I don't see any move beyond that in his immediate future. I think he has hit his ceiling for now.

[MNslappy]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

In all the Kentucky Derbies run from 2000 thru 2017, we have seen the winners of the Florida Derby, SA Derby and Arkansas Derby finish in the money. Superfecta as well. Here is a question for all of you to consider.

Maybe I'm confused by the wording here, but it's NOT true that the winners of these three races have finished in the Derby superfecta every year since 2000.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Tom

Magnum Moon has run Beyers of 95-88-97-98. I don't see any move beyond that in his immediate future. I think he has hit his ceiling for now.

Tom I know you probably don't believe sharing means caring but it's 4:52 in the afternoon and I just dropped a deuce and I think I flushed Magnum Moon down there with it!

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Tom

Magnum Moon has run Beyers of 95-88-97-98. I don't see any move beyond that in his immediate future. I think he has hit his ceiling for now.

Done that with pretty slow paces, if Justify is a bad bet this horse might be much worse.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Tom I know you probably don't believe sharing means caring but it's 4:52 in the afternoon and I just dropped a deuce and I think I flushed Magnum Moon down there with it!

It's now 5:52 and I just got it!

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Gerard02

Is it possible to see .....

Of course it is possible.

that's why the 2005 exacta paid almost $10,000

The people tossing out "spitballs" that day certainly weren't apologizing for winning a $133,134.80
trifecta.

2006, 2009, 2001 and 2002 weren't too bad either. 2011 was kinda okay, too.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Does this mean I have to auto-toss Good Magic?

[Gerard02]

My apologies, If my topic stirred the pot a little. It was meant to stimulate thought and conversation.

[Gerard02]

Originally Posted by MNslappy

Maybe I'm confused by the wording here, but it's NOT true that the winners of these three races have finished in the Derby superfecta every year since 2000.

I’m sorry. My wording was a bit off. What I meant was some of these winners finished 4th.

[Gerard02]

If we look at the stats, we see the years 2008, 09, 10, 11, the Derby winner did not qualify their final 3/8 and 1/8 in the prescribed time. Anomaly? You be the judge. Looking over the information, our derby winners around that grouping qualified. Many in the mix were RAN and Buckpasser-X combos, or either of each. Interesting patterns here. I’m glad I began my work, yesterday. Got much done on my day off. I’m looking at the Beyers, now. The puzzle comes together as more conversation goes on.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Tom

Magnum Moon has run Beyers of 95-88-97-98. I don't see any move beyond that in his immediate future. I think he has hit his ceiling for now.

the horse has only 4 races with each one beter than the other.

it's pretty amazing how creedence people put in speed figures allowing them to cloud and decide their judgement with any said horse

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

it's pretty amazing how creedence people put in speed figures allowing them to cloud and decide their judgement with any said horse

For me personally,a rough estimate

Speed Figures 60%
Race Design - 20%
Form Cycles or other like factors - 15%
Connections 5%