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03-06-2014, 04:35 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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Bayern
With Bayern's scratch in the San Felipe you gotta figure he goes right to the Santa Anita Derby and will need to finish top 2 to have a chance at making the Derby field... my 75-1 futures pool on him dont look as good anymore.... dammit
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03-06-2014, 06:57 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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All the bubble horses will drop out the last week. The points system may not even matter.
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03-06-2014, 07:11 PM
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#3
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,569
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could work out either way.
If he wins the SA Derby while being relatively fresh, you've got as good a shot as anyone.
or If it's very problematic he may not race for a while...
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-06-2014, 07:24 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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how serious is a 1/4 bruise?
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03-06-2014, 08:01 PM
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#5
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Smarty Cide
how serious is a 1/4 bruise?
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I have no idea.
Could be the start of a quarter crack or abscess, or he could have kicked the stall...
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-06-2014, 09:04 PM
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#6
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,299
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Bayern
He didn't race at age two - I seriously doubt he would have won the Derby.
Now I'm sure he won't win it.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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03-06-2014, 09:18 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 735
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what other top contenders did not race at 2?
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03-06-2014, 09:21 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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They're dropping like flies.Havana last week.Bayern and Bond Holder this week.
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03-06-2014, 09:25 PM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
They're dropping like flies.Havana last week.Bayern and Bond Holder this week.
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If there was a way to "Fade" these horses in the "exchange", i would have loaded up against Bayern and that Hollendorfer horse, i would be 2 for 2 already, easy as pie. I would have had to lay 8 or 10 to win 1, but i would have done it.
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03-06-2014, 09:28 PM
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#10
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,299
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Smarty Cide
what other top contenders did not race at 2?
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I cannot name low odds Derby runners with no 2yr old experience, but I know none has won it in a lonnnnnnnnnnng time...since Apollo in 1882.
That's a tough trend to buck.
Bodemeister came very close to winning it.
I think Indian Charlie is another who didn't race at age 2 but I am not sure...he ran 3rd in the Derby to Real Quiet and Victory Gallop.
Curlin also I think - he ran 3rd in the Derby too.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
Last edited by PhantomOnTour; 03-06-2014 at 09:30 PM.
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03-06-2014, 09:43 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I cannot name low odds Derby runners with no 2yr old experience, but I know none has won it in a lonnnnnnnnnnng time...since Apollo in 1882.
That's a tough trend to buck.
Bodemeister came very close to winning it.
I think Indian Charlie is another who didn't race at age 2 but I am not sure...he ran 3rd in the Derby to Real Quiet and Victory Gallop.
Curlin also I think - he ran 3rd in the Derby too.
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Also no winners from direct Nearctic male line descendants as Bayern is(Offlee Wild-Wild Again-Icecapade-Nearctic).There have been 4 through Northern Dancer in Big Brown,Charismatic,Sea Hero,and Ferdinand in the last 35 years.Plus Bayern is mile bred through Offlee Wild.
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03-07-2014, 06:46 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 466
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Personally, if it were me, I'd point him to the Preakness. Perfect race for him.
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03-07-2014, 10:35 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 245
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by theguarantee
Personally, if it were me, I'd point him to the Preakness. Perfect race for him.
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That is a great point! --
Also, I love loading up on a new shooter, while the "sheep" bet the Derby winner on Preakness day at 3/1. 
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03-07-2014, 10:51 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 334
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I love the idea of pointing Bayern toward the PReakness and not hurry him back. I just finished a long blog post about Bayern in the San Felipe right before I read that he was scratched. But watchign the replays and looking at some of the pedigree info was interesting.
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03-07-2014, 12:19 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheGarMan
That is a great point! --
Also, I love loading up on a new shooter, while the "sheep" bet the Derby winner on Preakness day at 3/1. |
the roi on this would be atrocious over the past couple years....Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra are the most recent two correct? Obviously Rachel didn't pay crap.
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