Who goes?

[Curln22]

I’m convinced someone is gonna send and take a shot with a true lack of pace horse.
My leading contenders.
1) Confidence Game: Horse has the most experience over the CD track.
Has won over the surface twice both times on the lead. Comes in fresh off the layoff and getting some long works in.
2) Reincarnate: Won his last two on the lead prior to shipping out of Cali.
Will have Johnny V in the saddle who has sent before with success.
3) Rocket Can: Mott adding blinkers, with a swift 46 breeze. Has run at CD with a win.

Would not be surprised to see one or more of these three try and steal it.
GL

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Curln22

I’m convinced someone is gonna send and take a shot with a true lack of pace horse.
My leading contenders.
1) Confidence Game: Horse has the most experience over the CD track.
Has won over the surface twice both times on the lead. Comes in fresh off the layoff and getting some long works in.
2) Reincarnate: Won his last two on the lead prior to shipping out of Cali.
Will have Johnny V in the saddle who has sent before with success.
3) Rocket Can: Mott adding blinkers, with a swift 46 breeze. Has run at CD with a win.

Would not be surprised to see one or more of these three try and steal it.
GL

I think all 3 of those try to send.

Believe Rocket Can is full send of anybody in the field. Mott knows there are plenty that pass a lot of horses late and his boy isn't one of them.

Authentic showed gate to wire can be done not that long ago.

[sovereign]

Derma Sotogake to lead them in :46.1

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by sovereign

Derma Sotogake to lead them in :46.1

That’s my thought as well. Catch me if you can. Seems to be the Japanese theme in world class events.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That’s my thought as well. Catch me if you can. Seems to be the Japanese theme in world class events.

Japanese horses have led exactly 1 race in Graded Stakes events in the States.

Now all of a sudden they are front-running burners.

[f2tornado]

Probably a fairly small sample size for US starts. They have enough G1 events in that hemisphere. That, plus they were getting crushed on shipping expenses with a devalued yen. They seem to run like Baffert. Get up front and start there. I’ll be surprised if Derma sits back more than a horse or two unless he breaks bad.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Probably a fairly small sample size for US starts. They have enough G1 events in that hemisphere. That, plus they were getting crushed on shipping expenses with a devalued yen. They seem to run like Baffert. Get up front and start there. I’ll be surprised if Derma sits back more than a horse or two unless he breaks bad.

Lani, Master Fencer, Marche Lorraine.

Japanese horses have long been forgotten because they lacked speed. They front run a single Derby and are now considered front-running speedballs?

Derma was aggressive in the UEA Derby for the 1st time in his career. Ended up on the lead and finished. Very similar to Kingsbarns in the LA Derby. Is Kingsbarns now a front-running speedball?

[f2tornado]

Kings slogging LA Derby was reminiscent of what Always Dreaming did in his 9F prep before the FL Derby. I’m not convinced he goes to the front like AD but wouldn’t be surprised either. Japan has been crushing on the front end lately and that’s the place to be in a crowded field if you have the stamina.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Kings slogging LA Derby was reminiscent of what Always Dreaming did in his 9F prep before the FL Derby. I’m not convinced he goes to the front like AD but wouldn’t be surprised either. Japan has been crushing on the front end lately and that’s the place to be in a crowded field if you have the stamina.

Fair enough.

But to not consider Derma as a serious horse is a mistake IMO. He is a damn good horse that looks to have something different than what we've seen before from the Japanese contingent. The UAE was a fast race.

Lani was 8th (3rd in the Belmont) and Master Fencer was 6th. It wasn't like they were complete no-shows. This is by far the best they have ever sent.

[f2tornado]

Agree. I’m not the one labeling him a burner or “cheap speed”. I could see him pull a Dortmund/Firing Line to the final pole, then it’s a matter of how much gas is left in the tank. People like to rip the Dubai contingent year after year but Japan is a different ball game and I wouldn’t auto-toss this one with a dominant performance like that.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Agree. I’m not the one labeling him a burner or “cheap speed”. I could see him pull a Dortmund/Firing Line to the final pole, then it’s a matter of how much gas is left in the tank. People like to rip the Dubai contingent year after year but Japan is a different ball game and I wouldn’t auto-toss this one with a dominant performance like that.

There is zero speed in this field, and I don't see him shooting to the front.

If he draws the 1-5 hole, maybe a different story. He is a natural stalker with speed of foot late (known as stamina). As stated earlier, he broke sharp once, and put them to bed in the UAE.

His latest work is a concern as he is still green and may not like traffic. Not a good look before running in a 20 horse field.

[dballard125]

I just cant bring myself to play one of these Japanese horses on top. One is going to have to beat me first before I become a believer. Am I wrong for thinking that way?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by dballard125

I just cant bring myself to play one of these Japanese horses on top. One is going to have to beat me first before I become a believer. Am I wrong for thinking that way?

There haven't been many. It isn't like they've sent 20 straight losers.

Crown Pride was a solid entry last year. Got caught up in the duel with the other Japanese entry and burned out. Part of one the fastest paces in derby history and finished 13th beating Charge It, Messier, Cyberknife, and White Abarrio.

Palace Malice ran 12th in 2013 in a brutal pace meltdown and went on to win the Belmont, Jim Dandy, and Met Mile.

Lani and Master Fencer were nice horses. Derma is the best they've ever sent.

[Roaring Good Time]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

There is zero speed in this field

Sure it looks that way, until a bunch of guys think that and all send believing they can grab an easy lead. Then there's suddenly a lot of speed in the race.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Roaring Good Time

Sure it looks that way, until a bunch of guys think that and all send believing they can grab an easy lead. Then there's suddenly a lot of speed in the race.

Yep. Verifying is the lone E in here on paper though there are many others capable of taking it. He could be dangerous if he gets a favorable inside (but not too inside) draw. I'll toss him from the win if he's more Wide Right than Scott Norwood. We might know more shortly as the draw is coming up this afternoon. I try to not let the posts influence me too much but there are some that have been absolute nightmares in recent years, the 14/15 especially for bumper cars out of the gate.