Field Size.....5 or -....6.......7.......8+
MLine...........Minimum Odds
5-1 or -........5/2.....5/2....5/2....3/1
6-1 to 8-1.....5/2.....5/2....3/1....7/2
9-1 to 15-1...5/2.....7/2....7/2....4-1
Over 15-1..........12-1
If the odds are above the morning line by 3 points or more pass.
If the total odds on the two favorites are less than the minimum odds pass.
If your pick is one of the two favorites, pass as the favorite.
These are the guidelines I use, very similar to what you are doing. The minimum odds are firm, odds changes after the race is started are unavoidable but happen. The other two should be followed but as you know, once in a while you just have a feeling that you should be playing the horse. This is true for the 15-1 + morning line picks more than the others.
I bring that up because at Gulfstream in the 10th race you have the
selected. This is what I call a possible distraction race. With the talked about Dak Attack in this race and a Chad Brown horse, Mask, the public could bet those two and ignore the Pletcher horse. In this situation I will forget the 3 point rule and go with your gut.
Good luck today!
Good
