Top Horse Analytics: 02/18/2020 Weekly Statistics

[Augenj]

Welcome to the public subset of the weekly statistics produced by Top Horse Analytics.

Column descriptions follow:

BET TYPE
Bet type descriptions precede graphs.

BET SIZE
Lowest bet size for a bet type.

OCC PC
Occurs percent is calculated by dividing the NBR RACES column by the NUMBER OF RACES at the top. (and multiplying by 100)

NBR RACES
The number of races for this bet type.

NBR HITS
The number of hits for this bet type.

HIT PC
Hit percent is calculated by dividing the NBR HITS column by the NBR RACES column. (and multiplying by 100)

DOL$ IN
Dollars In is calculated by multiplying the BET SIZE column times the NBR RACES column.

$DOL OUT
Dollars Out is calculated by summing the individual payoffs for this bet type during the year.

HI PAYOFF
High payoff is the highest payoff for this bet type during the year.

PROFIT
Profit is the $DOL OUT column minus the $DOL IN column for this bet type.

ROI
Return On Investment is calculated by dividing $DOL OUT by $DOL IN.

[Augenj]

WEEKLY STATISTICS

Bet Type
Favorite Win - Bet the favorite to win
Fav/Dirt M Win - Bet the favorite to win when race is Dirt and Mdn_MCLM
Fav/Turf M Win - Bet the favorite to win when race is Turf and Mdn_MCLM
Fav/Dirt NM Wn - Bet the favorite to win when race is Dirt and Not Mdn_MCLM
Fav/Turf NM Wn - Bet the favorite to win when race is Turf and Not Mdn_MCLM
Favorite Place - Bet the favorite to place
MLF Win - Bet the morning line favorite to win
MLF/Dirt M Win - Bet the ML favorite to win when race is Dirt and Mdn_MCLM
MLF/Turf M Win - Bet the ML favorite to win when race is Turf and Mdn_MCLM
MLF/Dirt NM Wn - Bet the ML favorite to win when race is Dirt and Not Mdn_MCLM
MLF/Turf NM Wn - Bet the ML favorite to win when race is Turf and Not Mdn_MCLM
MLF Place - Bet the morning line favorite to place
TH Win - Bet the top horse to win in all races
CTH Win - Bet the top horse to win if it has a profitable condition
TH/Dirt M Win - Bet the top horse to win when race is Dirt and Mdn_MCLM
TH/Turf M Win - Bet the top horse to win when race is Turf and Mdn_MCLM
TH/Dirt NM Win - Bet the top horse to win when race is Dirt and Not Mdn_MCLM
TH/Turf NM Win - Bet the top horse to win when race is Turf and Not Mdn_MCLM
TH Place - Bet the top horse to place
TH Show - Bet the top horse to show
TH Exacta - Bet a straight exacta with top horse and 2nd horse
TH Trifecta - Bet a straight trifecta with top horse, 2nd horse, 3rd horse
TH Superfecta - Bet a straight superfecta with top horse, 2nd horse, 3rd horse, 4th horse
TH Double - Bet a straight daily double with top horse in two consecutive races
TH Pick 3 - Bet a straight Pick 3 with top horse in three consecutive races
TH Pick 4 - Bet a straight Pick 4 with top horse in four consecutive races
TH Pick 5 - Bet a straight Pick 5 with top horse in five consecutive races
TH Pick 6, 5/6 - Bet a straight Pick 6 with top horse in six consecutive races

* * *

The following graphs simulate wagers over the past track year.

Pink colored cells indicate 0.8501 to 0.9000 ROI. (good)
Yellow colored cells indicate 0.9001 ROI to 1.0000 ROI. (better)
Green colored cells indicate 1.0001 ROI and above. (profitable)

AQU, GP, OP, SA, TAM

[Supergenius]

I will give it a try starting today through the weekend. I'm doing your TH as rolling doubles and P3s.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Supergenius

I will give it a try starting today through the weekend. I'm doing your TH as rolling doubles and P3s.

As you probably noticed, AQU might not be so good for this. Good luck.

[Supergenius]

I'm using it with Gulfstream Park. No hits so far....but hey, I'm hopeful.

[Augenj]

Daily Double results for the week ending on 2/23/2020

The following assumes that bets were made after late scratches.
Payoffs don't include consolation doubles.

Aqueduct $1 Doubles
2/20 Bet $7.00, Hit $0.00
2/21 Bet $7.00, Hit $7.10
2/22 Bet $8.00, Hit $4.05, $13.20, $13.00, $14.40, $7.00 (7 wins in 9 races)
2/23 Bet $7.00, Hit $7.00, $14.30
All - Bet $29.00, Hit $80.05

Gulfstream Park $1 Doubles
2/20 Bet $9.00, Hit $0.00
2/21 Bet $9.00, Hit $0.00
2/22 Bet $11.00, Hit $0.00
2/23 Bet $10.00, Hit $7.80
All - Bet $39.00, Hit $7.80

Oaklawn $1 Doubles
2/20 Bet $8.00, Hit $0.00
2/21 Bet $8.00, Hit $5.00
2/22 Bet $9.00, Hit $2.90
2/23 Bet $8.00, Hit $0.00
All - Bet $33.00, Hit $7.90

Santa Anita $2 Doubles
2/21 Bet $14.00, Hit $0.00
2/22 Bet $16.00, Hit $0.00
2/23 Bet $14.00, Hit $0.00
All - Bet $44.00, Hit $0.00

Tampa Bay $2/$1 Doubles
2/19 Bet $9.00, Hit $8.00($2), $10.50($1)
2/21 Bet $9.00, Hit $0.00
2/22 Bet $10.00, Hit $5.10($1)
2/23 Bet $9.00, Hit $3.50($1)
All - Bet $37.00, Hit $27.10

Straight bet daily double win percents over the past year:
AQU - 9.05%
GP - 6.68%
OP - 11.13 %
SA - 13.19%
TAM - 11.97%

The selections and results can be cross checked here:
https://www.vegassportscontrol.net/f...-expert-picks/

Looks like "we" bet the wrong track (GP) along with a bad case of "seconditus" on tracks other than AQU

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Augenj

As you probably noticed, AQU might not be so good for this. Good luck.

And of course, a correction was pending so don't listen to me again.