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02-02-2024, 07:22 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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Race Lens fallacies continues....
This weeks newsletter had something I didn't see prior
In its biggest ROI , it comments on "projected leader"
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02-02-2024, 07:27 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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OK....fine....I can tear that down too.....
Pic #1
Shows Rosario on first call leaders in Stakes Races....from 2021
He actually does fine with the top 3 ....but lets look at Race Lens comments on
being top first call
Pic #2
Here we go ...2021's big ROI year skewed results again....
Would you bet this?
I really thought they were taken a stronger attempt on the stuff they put out .....NOT !!!
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Last edited by Saratoga; 02-02-2024 at 07:31 AM.
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02-02-2024, 10:41 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,239
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The stat is based on "Projected Leader" which comes from the True Odds screen in Race Lens.
The algorithms were developed by Stats Perform and project which horse will be in front at the first and second call, not which horse was on the lead at the first or second call.
The results of that angle are accurate as measured.
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02-02-2024, 12:26 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ubercapper
The stat is based on "Projected Leader" which comes from the True Odds screen in Race Lens.
The algorithms were developed by Stats Perform and project which horse will be in front at the first and second call, not which horse was on the lead at the first or second call.
The results of that angle are accurate as measured.
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You really didn't get my post or are you avoiding the real issue..... 
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02-10-2024, 09:12 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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Something WITH substance.....
I would bet this one....
The 2 yesterday were up the track...OP one was a favorite
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Last edited by Saratoga; 02-10-2024 at 09:15 AM.
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02-10-2024, 01:09 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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saved by the scratch.... 
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02-11-2024, 10:20 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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FG pick ....went off 6/5 ....had nothing
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02-13-2024, 08:24 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,223
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga
Something WITH substance.....
I would bet this one....
The 2 yesterday were up the track...OP one was a favorite
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That Midshipman Oaklawn one - with the track having been given a completely new base and a new more heavily clay content cushion this year (instead of the normal "strip, sift, add a lttle material, replace" of the existing cushion) - I've been very wary of continuing all my previous years' use of sire/dam Oaklawn specific numbers.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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02-14-2024, 07:13 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
That Midshipman Oaklawn one - with the track having been given a completely new base and a new more heavily clay content cushion this year (instead of the normal "strip, sift, add a lttle material, replace" of the existing cushion) - I've been very wary of continuing all my previous years' use of sire/dam Oaklawn specific numbers.
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Totally agree but I could make an argument for most angles...
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02-16-2024, 11:43 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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Week of Feb 16....
Looking at the top ROI Play.....
Looks good for the 2 year stats....
But in Claming Races a .50 ROI.....and guess what...this is a claimer (nCLA 2)
Play or Pass ?
I guess my take is pass....
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Last edited by Saratoga; 02-16-2024 at 11:46 AM.
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02-16-2024, 07:05 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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What's with these horses getting scratched all the time....
It was a fast track too..... 
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02-17-2024, 11:08 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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Lets look lastly at the OP horse for today.......
Pic #1....Trainer at OP with dirt sprints...looks OK
Pic #2....Todays race is a Stakes....looks Ok here
Pic #3....Todays jockey , tho not his best goto.....has 2 wins with trainer
My guess is a PLAY!
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Last edited by Saratoga; 02-17-2024 at 11:09 AM.
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02-17-2024, 06:14 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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Play lost by a nose at 6-1
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02-23-2024, 06:23 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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This weeks plays.....
We are going with same thing I said in Post #10 for Franco's horse...
This time he's in an Allowance Race ....
He's does well with this trainer....
Negatives: O'fer at Santa Anita and this distance
Positives : Horse is class of the field
Take: at 7 or 8 to 1 or higher ...a play
Last edited by Saratoga; 02-23-2024 at 06:25 AM.
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02-23-2024, 09:36 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 513
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at 3/2 , he was a definite pass...and lost
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