Just A Touch

[PhantomOnTour]

I will build my Derby tickets around this colt as I think he is a major threat for a top three finish.
The trip is the thing for me, and he should get a very good one, provided he breaks well. Only speed inside of him is Dornoch in the 1 hole who is all but obliged to send, or risk getting buried. My pace numbers say his Blue Grass effort is the strongest early running anyone has done on the Derby trail so far. Geroux didn't really ride him that hard when Sierra came to him in the lane, and he galloped out nicely. I think he has more to give.
I see a very plausible scenario where (even though his pace figs are best) JAT secures a very cozy ground saving trip just off the pace.
Like my top choices the last two years (Epicenter & Two Phils) I'm envisioning JAT taking the lead as they turn in and being the one to catch in the lane. Some serious closers must be dealt with in Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom & Honor Marie, but will all three find their way through traffic and fire?

A few caveats:
> obviously, this whole scenario I've dreamed up goes down the drain if Fierceness fires his best shot
> JAT must overcome his inexperience (however, two of the last six winners came in with only three lifetime starts) and may have to prove he can run inside of horses, which he hasn't done yet
>the price may be a little lower than I want...guessing JAT will go off as the 4-5th choice. Hoping he stays near his 10-1 ML odds

Main plays will be keying him 2nd/3rd in tris as I think he's much more likely in those slots than on top.
Smaller plays will single him in a Double, on top in exactas, and a win bet

Good luck, who ya' got ?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I will build my Derby tickets around this colt as I think he is a major threat for a top three finish.
The trip is the thing for me, and he should get a very good one, provided he breaks well. Only speed inside of him is Dornoch in the 1 hole who is all but obliged to send, or risk getting buried. My pace numbers say his Blue Grass effort is the strongest early running anyone has done on the Derby trail so far. Geroux didn't really ride him that hard when Sierra came to him in the lane, and he galloped out nicely. I think he has more to give.
I see a very plausible scenario where (even though his pace figs are best) JAT secures a very cozy ground saving trip just off the pace.
Like my top choices the last two years (Epicenter & Two Phils) I'm envisioning JAT taking the lead as they turn in and being the one to catch in the lane. Some serious closers must be dealt with in Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom & Honor Marie, but will all three find their way through traffic and fire?

A few caveats:
> obviously, this whole scenario I've dreamed up goes down the drain if Fierceness fires his best shot
> JAT must overcome his inexperience (however, two of the last six winners came in with only three lifetime starts) and may have to prove he can run inside of horses, which he hasn't done yet
>the price may be a little lower than I want...guessing JAT will go off as the 4-5th choice. Hoping he stays near his 10-1 ML odds

Main plays will be keying him 2nd/3rd in tris as I think he's much more likely in those slots than on top.
Smaller plays will single him in a Double, on top in exactas, and a win bet

Good luck, who ya' got ?

I agree with you about its early speed and that’s a good thing in this race. What bothers me is it appears that it was tiring after a mile in 36 and change in the Bluegrass. I would have liked to have seen more foundation in order to handle the Derby distance.
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[dballard125]

As much as I want to, I just can't get away from playing Fierceness & Sierra Leone on top. I'll be keying them in most of my exotics and adding Catching Freedom & Just A Touch on top of a couple of tickets as backup.

Underneath is where it gets tricky. Honor Marie, Resilience, Just Steel, Society Man, Forever Young, Domestic Product, and Encino are all in consideration underneath.

[bisket]

Yesterday’s work from Just a Touch was just maintenance. Which tells me he was fit for the Bluegrass. Encino and Catching Freedom had works that will move them forward heading into the Derby. So I don’t really expect Just a Touch to move forward off the Bluegrass.

[Aerocraft67]

I upgraded him once I saw the TFUS fig for the Blue Grass, which is higher than the winner's, and among the highest in the field.

He's still a shade below the top two as a raw performance prospect, but a shade above Catching Freedom and Forever Young.

Like you said, playable at 10-1, fourth choice or so. Not as appealing as 8-1 third choice.

I don't like him as much as I did Mage last year, probably because I'm biased against history repeating itself, but also because he doesn't stand out quite as much, and he's nearly half the odds.

His TFUS early pace ratings are a shade above the other front runners. He doesn't need the lead. Gets a good post. Portends a promising trip.

Nothing to suggest a disadvantage for the distance.

Lots to like. Again, like you said, biggest concern is that his odds drop.

[boys at tosconova]

i like this horse. he'll be on my tickets

[bisket]

If I get this horse and Sierra Leone wrong I won’t be cashing. I’ve watched this guy let horses pass him without an answer in both races leading to the derby. I’ve heard all the things explaining this away, but I’m not buying. That’s primarily why I’m dropping him…. That’s also why Sierra Leone gets no brownie points for passing him

[wiretowire68]

I completely agree, I was really on this horse and then I have gone back Catching Freedom can pass horses. This horse as a young horse and experience seems to be able finish. And from experience.. many times horses who issues finishing is usually a stamina issue or lack of concentration.. It would not surprise me if he runs bad here and in softwares and linear regression model in terms of speed improvement..my numbers shows he ranks as higher + number to improve but in my short time in working with this type of model in terms of different classes, he has not shown that finishing fight yet. like I said if he does not fire and he ranks low in pace because of his lack of experience, you may see Blinkers in order to concentrate more. It is a difficult race to handicap because JR V. is one of the best to get a horse into position in distance dirt races and in 2 of last 3 starts this horse kicks ass... and was geared down, the question will be when he has experienced issues with bad starts or that lack of interest with trying to get him back into a race with some adversity. The outside draw was super, it will depend who really decides to go up... I am still rooting for Ken. Mcpeek and Mystik Dan but I did not like the Arkansas Derby but it was off a lay off...mud or nut or slop which is always a possible on Sat. in Kentucky... He did not have enough in the stretch to pass Muth and Just Steel passed him late but the encouraging sign was he got back into the bit after he was passed and fought back for third.. And it was off a layoff....just not sure he has enough tactical speed. Tactical Speed horse for me with a very shrewd jockey in A. Fresu and Stronghold.

[wiretowire68]

The blinker comment for Just a Cause. I meant was for his future.

[Bustin Stones]

Agreed on Touch. There are many many ways that this horse wins Saturday. The breeding and connections are top notch. Like others, this horse will need a couple things to go his way and he's there. If he "grows up" this week, he could be a triple crown winner. Age restricted stakes races are just that full of uncertainty.

[Afleet]

He could get the Mandaloun trip. Im using him

[zico20]

I am totally tossing Just a Touch! He isn't getting a dream trip, he isn't making the lead at any point and he doesn't seem like he has closing ability. He barely beat El Grande O in the Gotham. He could round out the super hi 5 with a little bit of luck.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Agreed on Touch. There are many many ways that this horse wins Saturday. The breeding and connections are top notch. Like others, this horse will need a couple things to go his way and he's there. If he "grows up" this week, he could be a triple crown winner. Age restricted stakes races are just that full of uncertainty.

in the past few years i've been drawn to these types of horses. plenty of positives and upticks with this horse with mike tyson connections.

17-1 is a great price

i love touch, fierce and steel. after those i throw up my arms a little.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Afleet

He could get the Mandaloun trip. Im using him

That's exactly how TimeformUS sees it: //

[zico20]

Safe to say he was the biggest disappointment, running last and losing by 53 lengths. Wonder if we will ever see him race again.