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04-25-2018, 06:30 AM
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#1
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Longshot for Wednesday
Buffalo Race 2 . . .#7 Er Monica-8/1 . . .Watch List pick from Apr 17
Key box Exacta with 5,8
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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04-25-2018, 09:20 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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You have guts if you can bet a horse from post 7 at Buffalo. The win percentage is 5.6, pretty much an industry standard now. But Buffalo has a terrible inside bias, post 1 wins at 27%, which should be unaccepetable. If I was the GM or director of racing at Buffalo, I would not allow that type of bias, I would figure out how to change it.
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04-25-2018, 09:48 AM
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#3
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Power User
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Markham, Ontario
Posts: 2,032
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04-25-2018, 10:01 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 593
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buf has one of the better sites of the smaller tracks and a great vidieo also. but the % of winning favs is too high for me .by the way arent the worst horses supposed to be placed to the inside if so then rays horse should have a better chance than its post suggests happy handicapping
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04-25-2018, 12:22 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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46% winning favorites, terrible...Monticello is 50%!...Northfield is 47%.
It's ashame how they killed half mile track racing.
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04-25-2018, 02:23 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 593
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i think the tracks mgment is part to blame they would rather see the odds on favs. meaning more winners and more churn for them but the bottom line it comes from the owners of said tracks an most of them are casino minded only !
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04-25-2018, 03:04 PM
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#7
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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I wish tracks would post ROI data for Drivers / Trainers / and Post Positions
Statsmaster at Trackmaster has ROIs for DR/TR but not post.
Here's what I have for Buffalo last year, not official.
Code:
Post BR PP1 PP2 PP3 PP4 PP5 PP6 PP7 PP8
Starts BR 800 800 800 800 780 767 733 469
% Wins BR 24% 16% 16% 18% 15% 8% 4% 3%
Dev from Exp* BR 81% 22% 22% 31% 12% -37% -68% -74%
ROI BR 0.75 0.80 0.72 1.03 0.77 0.67 0.52 0.43
*This is the Trackmaster number seen in the program beneath the Post number.
It is the deviation from what a "non post biased" track should be,
meaning in 8 horse fields, all posts should win 1/8th of the time.
The BR / BTVA numbers for the rail are the worst in the industry.
BR 81%
BTVA 97%
FHLD 62%
FLMD 17%
HAR 50%
LON 60%
MR 34%
NFLD 42%
STGA 57%
YR 47%
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Last edited by Ray2000; 04-25-2018 at 03:05 PM.
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04-25-2018, 05:09 PM
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#8
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Er Monica Scratched, something strange about this horse, back on watch list.
Instead go with Race 10
#1 Painter'S Edge-4/1 on top of 3,6,7,2,4 in the dime super
Good Luck All
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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04-25-2018, 06:56 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 593
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thanks ray for the post chart using that i grabed a 30-1 shot there seeing that the roi on the 4 was in the plus side thanks sir love those charts gl capping
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04-25-2018, 08:09 PM
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#10
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Glad you got it, sharkey!
10 race super was $1.00 . . 8-5-4-2 $9,569.00, and somebody had it.
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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04-25-2018, 08:49 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
46% winning favorites, terrible...Monticello is 50%!...Northfield is 47%.
It's ashame how they killed half mile track racing.
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At NFLD.....Wrenn and Merriman probably drive at least 80% of those winning favorites too. Is there an imbalance of driver talent there? Are those two that much better than the rest? When they drive elsewhere, they don't stand out.
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
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04-25-2018, 11:15 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachv30
At NFLD.....Wrenn and Merriman probably drive at least 80% of those winning favorites too. Is there an imbalance of driver talent there? Are those two that much better than the rest? When they drive elsewhere, they don't stand out.
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They're talented. Merriman does very well at the Meadows and now Wrenn is starting to make inroads at the Meadows. I think he won five races there one day last week. I'm a big fan of Wrenn, he has a lot of ability.
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