2018-2019 HONG KONG

[Ramblin]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

LOOK AT MY PICKS VS NITROS

TAKE MY PICKS VS NITRO WRITE THEM DOWN ON A SHEET OF PAPER AND ON WEDNESDAY POST THEM

SEE WHO HAS MORE WINNERS IN TOP 1 TOP 2 AND TOP 3

I DIDNT POST FOR THE FIRST FEW RACES SO COUNT ONLY THOSE WHEN WE BOTH POSTED

FAIR

REREAD NITRO CREDIT FOR RACE 9 HE NEVER HAD THE 11 I DID YET HE POSTED IT AS DUTCH WIN HMMMMM

Hypno....I'm happy for you. I hope you walked away with a profit. I hope we all do.

tbt...I'm not going to bother doing what you suggested. The card is complete and I'm not here to feed pissing contests.

I find the method Nitro chooses to use rather interesting (and prfitable). It seems to be rather consistent and successful over the long term at the HK tracks where huge volumes of money changes hands. I've been watching/tailing him the past 2 HK meets. Actually, I wish two things, 1) I had his money management skills and self discipline regarding the same 2) The formula he uses to initiate his selections pre-race.

Had I followed and used his dutching method last night, I might have won instead of dropping 10% of my bankroll for the evening. I'll also advise you to look at his plays from last weekend 's card. He damn near swept the card in regards to the exotics. I benefited greatly. For me it was a huge night altho I rarely post my plays since I rarely hit the 'place wager' key until the horses are sauntering to the gate and begin loading.


But hey, I don't need to defend him...and I should not have wasted my time responding to your bantering/badgering. However I do feel the need to step up when someone begins trolling others, waving a shiny object and yelling "look at me! look at me!". I should have known better. My apologies.

[Nitro]

I don’t know what it is or what some people are trying to prove. Obviously they think that posting selections is some sort of competition among others posting also. All I had to see was se the following comments and I immediately realized that this guy is not here to share information at all.

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

LOOK AT MY PICKS VS NITROS
TAKE MY PICKS VS NITRO WRITE THEM DOWN ON A SHEET OF PAPER AND ON WEDNESDAY POST THEM
SEE WHO HAS MORE WINNERS IN TOP 1 TOP 2 AND TOP 3
I DIDNT POST FOR THE FIRST FEW RACES SO COUNT ONLY THOSE WHEN WE BOTH POSTED - FAIR

He seems to think that his approach for identifying live entries is superior to my method. That could very well be true, but if it’s going to be based on who posts more Winners from among the Top 3 selections then he’s obviously missed the boat entirely!

I’m not looking for Winners! I’m looking to make Winning plays (like Dutching for instance) I’ve stated time and again that in order to make a successful Dutch Win bet the combined odds of my Top 3 picks have to provide a minimum of a 50% Profit margin. There’s an obvious reason for demanding sufficient value. This morning at Sha Tin was a typical race card where only 5 of the 10 races were even playable using my criterion. Fortunately 3 of the 5 races were hit and produced a reasonable return.

Here’s a thought: Perhaps these same type of people should stop trying to beat their egos, and actually jump into the live betting pools where the REAL competition exists.
.
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[formula_2002]

Nitro,let me say again, it appears to me you have the most successful postings . Can you post for any of the major USA tracks.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Nitro,let me say again, it appears to me you have the most successful postings .
Can you post for any of the major USA tracks?.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, my only reason for posting what I believe to be worthwhile information related to HK racing is to prove a point about how effective a superior tote analysis can be. That combined with a winning betting strategy has permitted me to experience some long term success.

Unfortunately, using this sort of approach for N.A. tracks would in all likelihood be compromised for the following reasons when compared to HK racing:

1) The average small field size for races in N.A. vs. those in HK (which is about 12 entries/race).

2) Stability of the Betting pools. There may be late money being waged in the HK pools, but the odds value is not always compromised because the pools are so large. The general stability of the Win pool in particular allows for a more accurate Dutch betting when using multiple entries. Tracks in N.A with smaller fields and betting pool sizes the odds tend to fluctuate much more dramatically during the typical betting cycle and can throw even a 2-entry Dutch Win bet completely out of kilter.

Don’t get me wrong. While a Dutching approach may not work, Vertical Exotic betting does from time to time produce some very nice results (which I’ve previously demonstrated on an irregular basis).

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. May 15, 2019… 72nd race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 78 Degrees Cloudy 50% of rain Wind: SSW 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190515_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 Righteous Mate (7-2) Was all out against a weak Class 5 field and is now moving up to Class 4 with a few in here that are consistent at this class level.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Lucky Girl (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 2 Hero Time (20-1)
Race 5 Magic Legend (6-5)
Race 5 Frustrated (7-2)
Race 6 Mr Darthvegar (6-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 5 Keep Moving (37-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 8 Vigor Fame (3-1) Had shown early speed in his last two outs while the last going 11 furlongs at the city track and now shortening up to a little more than a mile. At the break he threw his head up causing him to lose a length to the field, and instead of taking him to the rail to save as much ground as possible bug-boy Poon tried to rush him back into contention which was unsuccessful which forced him go into the first turn 3 wide and being used up too much. Down the backside he laid off the back hip of the pacesetter Perfect Pair. Even after all that it looked like he might hold on for the win with 150 metres to go, but lost it on a bob to Arcadia who had a much easier trip.

Race 8 Cinquante Cinq (3-1) After breaking his maiden in Class 4, he took the usual jump up in class and drew in with light weight while breaking from the 9 post and going off as the 7-2 favourite. He was aided at the gate when Roman Impero arrived at the start with a lame left hind leg which allowed an empty stall just underneath Cinq. He broke well but Chadwick was unable to get any closer than 3 wide in the first turn, down the backside Matthew moved him to the leader and engaged King's Shield. In the stretch it looked like he was going to make it home when King's Shield refused to switch leads and began to tire, but with 120 metres to go the ground loss in the first turn started to take its effect on him and was just edged out at the wire by Rickfield while beating the third place runner by 2 1/4 lengths.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 6 Universal Go Go (12-1)

Key Plays:
Race 7 Racing Fighter (9-2)
Race 8 Cinquante Cinq (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 Coby Win (41-1)
Race 2 Hero Time (20-1)
Race 6 Universal Go Go (12-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley to be run on Turf:(from top Class to bottom) - (4)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T.....5-4-8 W/ 1-10-12 …..7:15 AM


R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….6-5-8 W/ 1-10-9 ….…7:45 AM


R#3- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T....7-1-5 W/ 9-3-12 ….8:15 AM


R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…12-8-9 W/ 10-1-4 ….8:45 AM


R#5- 1000M C3 (5F)T….....4-6-7 W/ 8-12-3…..…9:15 AM


R#6- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….4-8-3 W/ 11-7-6 …....9:45 AM


R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…....7-4-1 W/ 12-8-3 …..10:15 AM


R#8- 1800M C3 (9F)T…….10-5-8 W/ 3-1-6 …...10:50 AM
.
.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. May 18, 2019… 73rd race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 85 Degrees Cloudy 80% of rain Wind: SW 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 Sunny Orient (3-1) Is still winless after 31 tries in Hong Kong with 19 of those at Sha Tin and 11 at this class level, and a jock hovering at 4%, no thanks.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 595 (Winners: 4th, 5th & 10th, Second: 1st)
Race 6 This One’s For You (51-1)
Race 6 Gracious Ryder (19-1)

Race 537 (Winners: 3rd & 4th, Second: 1st)
Race 8 Good Beauty (15-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Regency Darling (23-1)
Race 4 Mr Croissant (5-2)
Race 9 Ever Laugh (15-1)
Race 10 Champion’s Way (8-5)
Race 10 King Opie (16-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 5 Savvy Seven (4-1)
Race 8 Invincible Missile (3-2)
Race 9 Uncle Steve (7-5)
Race 10 King Opie (16-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 10 Champion’s Way (8-5)
Race 10 Right Choice (11-1)
Race 10 Perfect Match (6-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 3 Glittering Armour (7-2) Was bet down to the 7-2 second betting choice behind Gift Of Lifeline after being away from the races since December after bleeding. At the break he threw his head up losing a length to the field, by the time they reached the short turn at the Valley he was placed in the back third of the field which was not the place to be on that track. Entering the stretch he moved off the rail looking for running room but Ho had to drift him even further out then mid-stretch it looked as if he was hit in the face by the stick of Roberto Rispoli on Golden Glory , while that was happening the winner Loriz had scooted away from the field temporarily, Glittering Armour continued to close on the winner just missing by a length against the bias aided winner.

Race 5 Management Star (9-1) Broke his maiden two races back after breaking slow against Class 5 runners, then broke slow again after having to make the jump up in class. Again was a length slow out of the gate, he settled in the third flight while racing on the rail which was the preferable place to be that night at Happy Valley. He entered the stretch on par with the eventual winner Ruletheroost who was the betting favourite at post time, while he had clear running room to the line Management Star was stuck behind a tiring Little Island and was being bumped around on his outside by Above. After forcing his way thru, he just missed by a head at the wire and quickly galloped out past the winner after the line

Race 8 War Room (10-1) Has yet to run in the money in Hong Kong after going three for three in Australia although at lesser tracks, and he hasn't had the best of draws in HK and was again given a bad hand by the computer drawing the 11 post. Soon after the break he settled into his usual running position in the rear of the field three wide. In the turn he was carried even further out to the four path while making up good ground in the process, mid-stretch he showed his inexperience switching back and fourth off his leads but was still gaining on the leaders while doing so. He defeated 12 runners but was never going to catch Perfect Match who is now 4 for 6 lifetime.

Race 9 Uncle Steve (7-5) Had just missed out for the win in his previous out to Noble Steed, now picked up the services of leading rider Zac Purton for John Moore. At the start it looked as if the ground broke from underneath him but he quickly recovered without much damage, Zac then placed him a lot closed to the pace than in his last racing 2 wide and in the third flight during the turn. Entering the stretch he was in tight when the pace setter slowed the pace down, then for the remainder of the stretch was caught behind a wall of horses with no way out and was never allowed to stretch his legs.

Race 10 Rivet (11-1) Had been away from the track since January after catching Waikuku going 7 in his last before the break, he broke well at the start and Zac was able to set in to a nice position 2 wide in the first turn. Entering the stretch Purton moved him to the 5 path for clear running room but was unable to draw in Turin Redstar at the wire only missing by a short head. Looks to finally be sitting on a winning effort.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 3 Hasta Luego (22-1)
Race 4 Big Party (3-5)

Key Plays:
Race 8 War Room (10-1)
Race 9 Uncle Steve (7-5)

Longshots:
Race 3 Hasta Luego (22-1)
Race 5 Management Star (9-1)
Race 10 Rivet (11-1)

[Ramblin]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

LOOK AT MY PICKS VS NITROS

TAKE MY PICKS VS NITRO WRITE THEM DOWN ON A SHEET OF PAPER AND ON WEDNESDAY POST THEM

SEE WHO HAS MORE WINNERS IN TOP 1 TOP 2 AND TOP 3

I DIDNT POST FOR THE FIRST FEW RACES SO COUNT ONLY THOSE WHEN WE BOTH POSTED

FAIR

Uhhhhmmmm....okay. Take your picks and Nitro's and post them for Weds.
Okay..
(Winners highlighted in RED )

____________________________________________

NITRO

Originally Posted by Nitro

R#1- 1000M C4 (5F)T.....5-4-8 W/ 1-10-12 …..7:15 AM


R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….6-5-8 W/ 1-10-9 ….…7:45 AM


R#3- 1650M C3 (8.25F)T....7-1-5 W/ 9-3-12 ….8:15 AM


R#4- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T…12-8-9 W/ 10-1-4 ….8:45 AM


R#5- 1000M C3 (5F)T….....4-6-7 W/ 8-12-3…..…9:15 AM


R#6- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T….4-8-3 W/ 11-7-6 …....9:45 AM


R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T…....7-4-1 W/ 12-8-3 …..10:15 AM


R#8- 1800M C3 (9F)T…….10-5-8 W/ 3-1-6 …...10:50 AM
.
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Hypno...


R#1-

R#2-

R#3-

R#4-

R#5-

R#6-

R#7–

R#8-


_________________________________


OK...the results are in.

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all to be run on Turf:
(Class top to bottom) - (1)-Class-2, (4)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SAT EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
...............................This morning’s card looks wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 9-1-5 W/ 7-12-4 …..1:00 AM


R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T….… 7-1-2 W/ 3-11-4 .….1:30 AM


R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T..…. 2-3-6 W/ 12-7-8 ….2:00 AM


R#4- 1200M C3 (6F)T..…. 6-8-10 W/ 5-3--- .….2:30 AM


R#5- 1800M C4 (9F)T…... 8-1-4 W/ 2-14-7 ……3:05 AM


R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 7-1-4 W/ 6-9-2 ..….3:35 AM


R#7– 1400M C3 (7F)T….. 8-2-3 W/ 1-7-10 …...4:05 AM


R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T….… 6-1-7 W/ 3-9-8 …...4:35 AM


R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T..… 5-4-2 W/ 6-14-7 …..5:10 AM


R#10- 1600M C2 (8F)T... 2-12-13 W/ 6-1-7 …..5:50 AM
.
.

[Ramblin]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with all to be run on Turf:
(Class top to bottom) - (1)-Class-2, (4)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SAT EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
...............................This morning’s card looks wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 9-1-5 W/ 7-12-4 …..1:00 AM


R#2- 1000M C4 (5F)T….… 7-1-2 W/ 3-11-4 .….1:30 AM


R#3– 1200M C4 (6F)T..…. 2-3-6 W/ 12-7-8 ….2:00 AM


R#4- 1200M C3 (6F)T..…. 6-8-10 W/ 5-3--- .….2:30 AM


R#5- 1800M C4 (9F)T…... 8-1-4 W/ 2-14-7 ……3:05 AM


R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 7-1-4 W/ 6-9-2 ..….3:35 AM


R#7– 1400M C3 (7F)T….. 8-2-3 W/ 1-7-10 …...4:05 AM


R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T….… 6-1-7 W/ 3-9-8 …...4:35 AM


R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T..… 5-4-2 W/ 6-14-7 …..5:10 AM


R#10- 1600M C2 (8F)T... 2-12-13 W/ 6-1-7 …..5:50 AM
.
.

Good luck this afternoon sir.

[Nitro]

UPDATE:R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 9-1-5 W/ 7-11-4 …..1:00 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Ramblin

Good luck this afternoon sir.

It looks like a decent card this morning. Hopefully we'll catch a few nice ones.

GL to you also!

[Ramblin]

Tri time

1,4,5,7,9,11/
1,4,5,7,9,11/
1,4-9,11

[Ramblin]

Originally Posted by Ramblin

Tri time

1,4,5,7,9,11/
1,4,5,7,9,11/
1,4-9,11

7-4-9



No play for me. The nice folks at Twin Spires locked the window as the first horse loaded in the gate. That's early for them but it is what it is.

$234 would have returned almost $1390.



But....

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE:R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 9-1-5 W/ 7-11-4 …..1:00 AM

Well done Nitro!!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Ramblin

Tri time

1,4,5,7,9,11/
1,4,5,7,9,11/
1,4-9,11

There you go!

UPDATE:R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T….. 9-1-5 W/ 7-11-4 ..1:00 AM

7-4-9-1– Dutch Loss 181% Profit Margin / $110.90 Quinella & $2,138.20 Triple Bx ($22,825.20 Quartet)/ Winner #7 took the late money - ALL of that one!