HONG KONG –SHA TIN SUN-4/25

[Nitro]

Good evening to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’ll be posting my pre-race selections for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with All races on the Turf.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:45 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis have come up with my preliminary picks for each race. However, I’ll be only posting live selections this morning because the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these entries and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Wait until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).

Good Luck if you’re playing!
.

[Ramblin]

Wishing you success on your plays today Nitro.
While I won't bother you as the races progress, I was wondering if you have noticed a difference one way or another in the payoffs of the exotics at Sha-Tin on marquee racing days like today. It'd be interesting to know if you've seen a difference in your time playing Hong Kong. I would also wonder about if you've sen a higher rate of return on your dutch plays.
Again, good luck today sir.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Ramblin

Wishing you success on your plays today Nitro.
While I won't bother you as the races progress, I was wondering if you have noticed a difference one way or another in the payoffs of the exotics at Sha-Tin on marquee racing days like today. It'd be interesting to know if you've seen a difference in your time playing Hong Kong. I would also wonder about if you've sen a higher rate of return on your dutch plays.
Again, good luck today sir.

Hi Ramblin
Thanks
The payoffs on the races with many entries are usually pretty much the same.
The shorter fields with the heavy favorites usually run true to form and the payoffs are usually much lower.
The Dutch plays will usually be made in the larger fields assuming the odds are good in order to produce the 50% minimum.
GL today!

[Nitro]

Preliminary Selections for ALL 10 races:

R#1-1400M C4 (7F)T….............10-2-6 W/ 3-7-11

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T……………...5-2-4 W/ 9-10-13

R#3– 1200M C3 (6F)T….........….1-10-11 W/ 9-3-2

R#4- 1600M C3 (8F)T…………..….4-10-1 W/ 7-8-11

R#5- 1200M GR1 (6F)T………..….1-10-6 W/ 12-7-4

R#6- 1400M C3 (7F)T………………7-13-10 W/ 1-9-4

R#7– 1600M GR1 (8F)T……………1-5-2 W/ 3

R#8- 2000M GR1 (10F)T……….…6-1-5 W/ 7-2

R#9- 1600M C2 (8F)T………………2-7-11 W/ 14-4-10

R#10-1200M C2 (6F)T……..….… 7-1-5 W/ 3-13-8

Live Video:
https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...=livestreaming

Live W/P & QUIN Tote Activities:
https://bet.hkjc.com/racing/pages/od...ue=ST&raceno=1
.

[Nitro]

R#1-1400M C4 (7F)T….............10-2-6 W/ 3-7-11

1-7-5-3– Dutch LOSS 63% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Not much late action on the LS Winner #1 /

I won’t posting any live updated selections this morning. There seems to be a slight delay in the tote feed.
That means I’ll have to focus on my betting and won’t have the time to post at 3 mins. to post
Hopefully the preliminary choices will produce some nice returns for anyone that’s interested.
GL this morning and keep your eyes on the board.

[Nitro]

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T……………..5-2-4 W/ 9-10-13

13-9-10-4 – Dutch WIN 19% Profit Margin (Subbed the 13 for the 4) - PASSED / $83.30 Quinella & $1,319.80 Triple BX & ($5,332.00 Quartet BX) – All of that one!

[Onesome]

R3 Not a fan of this huge fav, trying some w/p on the w in exotics

Edit 9-1-2, ugh, 3 never looked comfortable and just grinded away for like 5th.

[Nitro]

R#3– 1200M C3 (6F)T….........….1-10-11 W/ 9-3-2

9-1-2-11 – Dutch LOSS 6% Profit Margin - PASSED / $24.20 Quinella & $658.00 Triple BX & ($5,769.60 Quartet BX) – All of that one!

[Onesome]

R4 Bit of a cluster**** odds market, late money will be interesting to see, nevertheless / for me

Edit 5-10-3, 5 gets up in time, i was stuck between 8 and 10 as my last for exotics and i knew i went wrong when the 8 was sweating buckets at the gate

[Nitro]

R#4- 1600M C3 (8F)T…………..….4-10-1 W/ 7-8-11

5-10-3-12– Dutch LOSS 142% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Some decent action on the LS Winner #5 - a definite update inclusion /

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by Nitro

5-10-3-12– Dutch LOSS 142% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Some decent action on the LS Winner #5 - a definite update inclusion /

Define action on the winner? he floated up in the last minutes a point or two according to what I had written down 5mtp. It was the 2, 6 and I think 12 that were taking money late.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Onesome

Define action on the winner? he floated up in the last minutes a point or two according to what I had written down 5mtp. It was the 2, 6 and I think 12 that were taking money late.

You can't always use late money especially if you're viewing just the odds (the Win pool) The #5 got solid early action especially in the Quinellas. Falling off a bit late in the Win pool means nothing.

[Onesome]

R5 That all up money on 10 and 13, yikes. Funny thing on the ratings I use Danon Smash should be like 1-2, he's cold as the Arctic. Going to go /

Edit 6-4-13, right about Danon Smash, wrong everything else, lol

[Nitro]

R#5- 1200M GR1 (6F)T………..….1-10-6 W/ 12-7-4

6-4-13-11– Dutch WIN 20% Profit Margin - PASSED / $48.40 Quinella

[Onesome]

R6 Shooting for the moon, the obvious fav 13 is obviously bet (but like Danon Smash, maybe not as much as you would expect fwiw) /

Edit 2-9-8 another pile of money up in flames under Joao's hands