Risky horse racing bets you made that won? :)

[Horsery]

I bet Win Place Show for three Longshots and the Longshots won, place, and showed. I played $25 including some win bets and got about $140! My risky bets paid off! Even wagering was like,"You are a really good horse racing bettor!" The me who had no idea what the hell I was doing my very first day as a horse racing bettor and kept asking Wagering for help seems like a lifetime ago

[Tor Ekman]

Is that you, Latka?

[TMQ]

I'm thinking we might have different definitions of Longshot because if bet $25 between 3 longshots and they came in 1sr 2nd and 3rd you probably should've won more then $140

[Jeff P]

I'm thinking a three horse $0.50 trifecta box costs just $3.00.

What did the trifecta pay?


-jp
.

[rastajenk]

Who cares?

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Horsery

I bet Win Place Show for three Longshots and the Longshots won, place, and showed. I played $25 including some win bets and got about $140! My risky bets paid off! Even wagering was like,"You are a really good horse racing bettor!" The me who had no idea what the hell I was doing my very first day as a horse racing bettor and kept asking Wagering for help seems like a lifetime ago

Start out betting a $1 three horse exacta box and bet $2 WP on the biggest price of the three. After a while you'll learn how to adjust and get more value out of each bet.

[Robert Fischer]

this topic/question is 'triggering' to me.

i once over-bet my bankroll and happened to win.
Horse called "Dialed In" for Nick Zito in the Florida Derby. In hindsight it was a horse that I would never bet.
He was about 2/1 in a 7 or 8 horse field. Everyone knew about the horse.

*Posted a bit wide, which isn't usually good, but he was a closer in that race, so the post was not significant.

* He had to make quite a deep close, and overcome a flow that stagnated into a 'merry-go-round' flow.

*However it was a bit unique in that the pace and distance were challenging enough to the rivals in spite of a flow that looks locked into the merry go round fixed positions. There may be small truth in an observation that Dialed In kind of 'ran his own race'. In general, I don't do the 'ran his own race thing'. I consider the flow to be 'the flow'.

The pace setter was 69/1... Pace Advantage has all these Malcolm Gladwell "Blink" scholars...
pa geniuses

So the tendency is to consider how cheap speed affected the situation...

but a closer look frees us from bias of 'commitment and consistency' and 'anchoring bias' to the instant 'blink' impression of noticing the pace setter was a big long shot.

Mildly interesting is that the pace setter ran on for a relatively willing 2nd to Dialed In.
Mildly interesting with garlic butter sauce is that the pace setter was a decent horse named "Shackleford" and (4th in Derby, won Preakness, 2nd Haskell, 2nd Dirt Mile, then at four years old won a mediocre Met as well as winning the Clark)... So in hindsight, Shackleford was significantly overlayed, as he was better than 69/1.

Wanted Alligator shoes because it was the Florida Derby. Could only find Crocodile, so got the dress shoes and the crocodile belt. Twelve years later still break them out occasionally.

I do not recommend risky horse racing bets. For every positive story there are some rough, rough negative (Losing) stories.

I have nine fingers...

[Horsery]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Start out betting a $1 three horse exacta box and bet $2 WP on the biggest price of the three. After a while you'll learn how to adjust and get more value out of each bet.

I was remiss to only call it Win, Place, Show. I actually had some Exacta Bets too and two Longshots had come in the exact way I had bet on, a very risky bet that paid off. The Win, Place, Show was for the Favorites, the Exacta Bets were for the Longshots, wagering told me I was a good horse Bettor because two Longshots winning in exact order(Exacta) was extremely rare and my risky bet paid off. I chose a Longshot for a Show and he won, so I got some money for him Showing too. I should have done a Trifecta for a couple more dollars and would have won even more money.

[Augenj]

Knowing that I had taken a computer class in COBOL programming, a fellow computer operator challenged me to write a program to pick the horses. How hard could it be? I combined the speed ratings and relative finish positions from all of their past races. The 4th race exacta at HOL was usually on fast dirt and my program had been profitable enough in earlier races so that others at work wanted to bet with me. I was running secretively on an IBM business computer. I would box the top two horses when betting.

This day at Hollywood Park was the 4th race, a route on dirt, and a $5 exacta which was all the exactas they had in the early 70's. The morning lines on the top two horses were 15/1 and 20/1.They both had the same trainer. I looked at their past performances and saw that they had never run a route before. As they broke I dejectedly watched the race, not even hoping. I kept hearing one of my horses names as Harry Henson called out his name in that gravely voice. Not too surprising since he was a "sprinter".

Then I heard my other horse's name. Turning for home, these two were in the lead. Surely they couldn't last down the stretch. Surprisingly, they did and expanded their lead over the third runner by 5 lengths, 10 lengths, maybe 15. They were going to win either way in my exacta box if the jockeys didn't fall off. They were nose to nose all the way down the stretch. After they hit the line I nervously waited for an Inquiry but none came. My 20/1 shot was the winner after a long wait.

I had bet three $5 exacta box tickets, $10 each, for a friend who insisted on betting just like me, a "community" coworker bet, and one box for me. It paid $1,327.50 for each ticket. I "knew" at that point that I was the greatest handicapper on the planet and a fortune was in my hands. I later felt pressure coming from internal computer auditors and so parked the system until years later when personal computers came out. Needless to say, I wasn't the greatest handicapper in the world and not all races are on super fast dirt surfaces. At first, I didn't have enough memory or speed on the personal computers at the time and later when I did to do a decent analysis, I learned the past doesn't always dictate the future. All I could do was break even (even) though the analysis showed profit.

Back then, that $1,327.50 was a lot of money for me and made my life a lot easier. I worked not far from Hollywood Park so a lunchtime bet was doable for me.

As a sad side note, a coworker had also bet the same ticket on his own but his dad got him to give it back to the ticket seller and replace it with his own picks. (I don't blame him) The ticket guy slid it to the front of the cage and somebody bought it at the last minute. It gets even sadder after this.

I counted out the money that afternoon to the coworker who bet just like me. I paused at the 50 cents payout. "And the 50 cents he said."

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Augenj

Back then, that $1,327.50 was a lot of money for me and made my life a lot easier. I worked not far from Hollywood Park so a lunchtime bet was doable for me.

I was an inside/outside salesmen for an electric supply house in about the same era out of East La. I just had to turn in an itinerary where I had been, I coincidentally worked the area around the track on race days.
Since I did well I had a long leash, until one day I had a falling out with a girlfriend who became very vindictive. She called the business owner who was fine with proudly cheating on his wife, but against drinking and gambling, that ended the party, was fun while it lasted.

[cj]

As long time members of this board may know, I was big on War Emblem in 2002 for the Illinois Derby and again for the Kentucky Derby. However, for the latter I was stationed in Saudi Arabia at Prince Sultan Air Base and was having trouble accessing my TVG account as it was blocked there as you might imagine.

I was a comm guy at the time and had access to unfiltered internet but I really wasn't supposed to use it for personal use. But, I took a chance anyway. I bet $100 win on War Emblem and $20 Oaks/Derby Doubles Take Charge Lady, Farda Amiga over War Emblem, Blue Burner (don't ask!) for a total of $180. I bet another $70 in Derby exotics but none of that worked out.

The net haul was about 16k. The next time I had a chance to check my account, it was CLOSED! I couldn't access it at all. I was obviously very worried but there was nothing I could do from Saudi.

About a week later, I call my wife and she mentions you got something from TVG, she thinks a check. I'm like OPEN IT! She does and it was all a check for my TVG balance including the Derby winnings along with notice my account was closed. It turned out it had nothing to do with betting from Saudi Arabia. They had decided they couldn't do business in Oklahoma and the timing was just a coincidence. Talk about a relief! Nobody ever said anything about it on the Air Force side so I made it through unscathed.

By the way, TVG still won't take Oklahoma residents.

[bisket]

Betting a longshot is not necessarily a risky bet. You’re betting into a mutual pool have confidence in your handicapping. Sometimes the higher the odds the larger the wager..

[mountainman]

In my youthful, crazy, misguided, the world is full of idiots and I'm a genius days I literally viewed every bet I'd ever lost as some star-crossed anomaly and believed that I'd never tear up another ticket.

This narcissistic insanity lead to plenty of risk taking for which I paid dearly, but I do fondly recall one instance when it paid off handsomely.

Somehow tasked with buying about $300 worth of trifectas with one specific "steam" horse on top, I endeavored to instead plunk the guy's dough on the horse I liked.

The catch was he might arrive from work at around post time-or maybe just a bit after- in which case it would seem odd to have already "discarded' his tickets. Not to worry. I simply placed my wager and retreated to an out-of-the-way restroom, planning to emerge only after some time had passed.

His horse was the 8, mine the 7. From the bowels of this (downstairs) bathroom, I could make out the call which crescendoed in a tite finish between the two horses. His, I was sure, had gone off at long odds, mine at decent price.

At last then, after the sort of interminable delay that meant a very close one, came the screams indicating it was no dead heat. A number had been posted.

I've never felt more alive than when climbing those steps. Either I was flush, or would have to face the music. 7-8 the monitor displayed. $16 on the winner.

Back then I thought it was money-or the acute lack thereof-that compelled me to risk so much, but decades later I well understand it was the rush I sought, and was addicted to.

I think I was 20 or 21, and would like to say I soon outgrew that behavior, but in truth, it took another few years for me to come to my senses.

[deathandgravity]

Down to my last few bucks in the 2004 Breeders Cup.
Played a pick 4:

Oija Board
All
Better Talk Now (one of my favorite horses)
Ghostzapper

Think the ticket was around $8 & returned about 25K

Been all downhill since then.

[bisket]

My biggest hit started the year before with a tough beat. I liked Drosselmeyer for the Derby in 2010, but he missed the gate by a few bucks in graded earnings. He ran in the Peter Pan and won, and then showed up in the Belmont. I missed a 25k super in the Belmont by a neck to 4th place finisher Game on Dude. If I remember correctly Pace had that. So Game on Dude was definitely on my radar because of that. Another horse I liked on the derby trail that year was Setsuko and he shows up in 2011 Santa Anita Handicap. Who else is there but Game on Dude. I hit the exacta on that race for $1200. A few months later the Dude finished second by a nose to First Dude in the Hollywood Gold Cup which was the fastest race that year. I’m handicapping the Classic and I start looking at all of the Dude’s replays and discovered a curious thing. He was always on or near the lead. When he was inside when he changed leads he was smooth as silk and would win or be a close second. When he was outside he would stumble around like a drunken sailor changing leads and lose. He’s the speed so if he’s inside the other projected speed he’s a good bet for win or place. I’m sweating the draw and when I see he gets the 8 hole I think, “crap”. After looking at the pp’s he’s inside the other speed so I’m looking good. Drosselmeyer hadn’t been running well all year, but before the Jockey Club Gold Cup Mott mentions Dross has stepped it up in his training. He finishes second but if the race was 2 turns he would have won. So I got a great setup with my 2 best horse. Dude sets a good pace for Dross. I liked Ruler on Ice in the Belmont earlier that year but didn’t have place or show to collect. I’m thinking he figures with the Dude’s pace. The race played out just like I figured and all 3 were double digit odds. I hit the exacta, trifecta, and the dime super for 25k. All the bets were boxed. I bought a Disney Timeshare for my kids with that money.