The Triple Crown Change?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Feels like we are on the precipice of a complete change in the Kentucky Derby trail.

The US crop isn't the sold and old gold of decades past. Supposedly elite horses bred in 'Merica struggle to run 4 races a year.

Seeing a trend of trainers running on turf early, switching to dirt to make a run. Can't disallow the AW horses either, and toss in the more stamina breds from Japan and the next 10 years will be interesting.

[denniswilliams]

So all those years when the Beyer propaganda machine was insisting that TURF and AW horses were SLOW it wasn't true?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

So all those years when the Beyer propaganda machine was insisting that TURF and AW horses were SLOW it wasn't true?

Times change.

Old school isn't new school.

Either you change or die.

The handicapping world gives serious respect to Andy Beyer. Absolute phucking legend. But, times move on and either you adapt or never cash.

[lamboguy]

this game has changed immensely. people look at Beyer numbers and speed figs. i guarantee you i could find more winners if i knew the hemoglobin numbers. if a racing form cost $12 these days, i would pay $120 for those hemoglobins.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

this game has changed immensely. people look at Beyer numbers and speed figs. i guarantee you i could find more winners if i knew the hemoglobin numbers. if a racing form cost $12 these days, i would pay $120 for those hemoglobins.

Would the hemoglogins outdo the pre-race 'shakes' and other race day tactics?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Would the hemoglogins outdo the pre-race 'shakes' and other race day tactics?

i have been naiive for the past 50 years thinking that this tinkering with the breathing and blood counts would have any effect on the performance of horses. bottom line is i couldn't be more wrong.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i have been naiive for the past 50 years thinking that this tinkering with the breathing and blood counts would have any effect on the performance of horses. bottom line is i couldn't be more wrong.

Pace and projection is all we have as old school 'cappers.

Take that as the advantage that it is. We aren't beating the computer crowd on numbers. We need to be heady and observe the numbers, but also see things the numbers will never see

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i guarantee you i could find more winners if i knew the hemoglobin numbers.

[burnsy]

It’s a question of who makes it and the trip in the Derby . People try to figure out who the best 3 yo is in May and many years now that is impossible to do because these horses are not ready yet . You got horses now that get the best trip that day and win the first leg ……. Then the same horse struggles or never wins again . Many of these horses only have 4 or 5 races lifetime if that going in to the Triple Crown . How the hell do you know anything now . That San Felipe has 4 freaking horses entered today . It’s embarrassing. And people are making Nysos some kind of hero already . He didn’t make the race , hopefully it’s just track conditions held him back . Even with that who knows what the hell he’s beating up on out there . And how the hell do you call the Santa Anita H. A Grade 1 with that field ? But you got people carrying on like there’s not a problem .

And like I said before if you’re betting favorites in these future pools. Get your head examined . I definitely would not be bragging about that in public.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by burnsy

It’s a question of who makes it and the trip in the Derby . People try to figure out who the best 3 yo is in May and many years now that is impossible to do because these horses are not ready yet . You got horses now that get the best trip that day and win the first leg ……. Then the same horse struggles or never wins again . Many of these horses only have 4 or 5 races lifetime if that going in to the Triple Crown . How the hell do you know anything now . That San Felipe has 4 freaking horses entered today . It’s embarrassing. And people are making Nysos some kind of hero already . He didn’t make the race , hopefully it’s just track conditions held him back . Even with that who knows what the hell he’s beating up on out there . And how the hell do you call the Santa Anita H. A Grade 1 with that field ? But you got people carrying on like there’s not a problem .

And like I said before if you’re betting favorites in these future pools. Get your head examined . I definitely would not be bragging about that in public.

Baffert decided to let his other horses have a win, that is all. Perception is reality, after Nysos wins the Santa Anita Derby easily he goes off the favorite in the Preakness no matter who wins the Derby. I was going to put $200 on him in the futures if I could have gotten 5-1. That would have allowed me a $1000 to play around with in the tris and super, including putting him second in case he gets beat. If he didn't run then there goes the $200, it isn't like I haven't lost that much many times over the past few decades.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Times change.

Old school isn't new school.

Either you change or die.

The handicapping world gives serious respect to Andy Beyer. Absolute phucking legend. But, times move on and either you adapt or never cash.

I agree but unfortunately there are multiple generations of AWT 'haters' (maybe even turf) and every time I turn on the NYRA show, 'Beyer' is the primary method of description.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Pace and projection is all we have as old school 'cappers.

Take that as the advantage that it is. We aren't beating the computer crowd on numbers. We need to be heady and observe the numbers, but also see things the numbers will never see

Totally Untrue –
The color of money and its desire to profit hasn’t one bit!
.
.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Feels like we are on the precipice of a complete change in the Kentucky Derby trail.

The US crop isn't the sold and old gold of decades past. Supposedly elite horses bred in 'Merica struggle to run 4 races a year.

Seeing a trend of trainers running on turf early, switching to dirt to make a run. Can't disallow the AW horses either, and toss in the more stamina breds from Japan and the next 10 years will be interesting.

I agree with this statement. It seems to be a trend that if a horse gets good, either from the TC races or just races in general, it usually retires after four races or less and goes to the breeding shed.

I hope we can see more of a mix from the Internationals coming in the TC, not just in the Derby race (also Preakness and Belmont Stakes too!). Japan is dominating the horse racing world as we know it, so why not ship some of their best here to race with ours?

[bisket]

We don't breed gallopers anymore. Northern Dancer changed that. We breed milers and hope they stay 1 1/4 mile. We had a galloper last year in Archangelo. Handicappers don't know what to do with a galloper these days. It makes a difference whether a miler is in the 1 or 2 path on the turn to win at the classic distance. When I predicted Archangelo would take back on the backstretch and go around the field on the turn in the Travers the reaction was that's nuts. When a horse can gallop 12's the only thing you're worried about as a rider is to not get trapped on the rail. You want him outside and free to gallop his 12's while the rest of the field are struggling to get the distance. Up until the 1990's the breed in America had the inside straight on horses bred to race on dirt because we bred gallopers. I find it funny how at the same time most of racing in the US are holding onto dirt racing when we essentially did away with gallopers, the best type of horse to race on dirt. A miler can win on grass and dirt because they have a short burst of speed that's faster than a galloper. That works on dirt to a point, but is essential to win on the grass. A talented galloper will swallow a miler up after 1 1/8 mile every time. We need blood from Japan to get ourselves back to breeding the correct horse for the derby.