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05-28-2020, 01:50 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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How to.......???
Looking to develop a odds line based on a Power Rating and Morning Line
How would YOU do it with this info...
#......ML.......Pwr #
1......20.........64
2......15.........67
4......2.5........66
5......12.........59
6......12.........77
7......2...........87
8......20.........42
9......6...........49
10....8...........49
Thank you
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05-28-2020, 03:48 PM
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#2
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Looking to develop a odds line based on a Power Rating and Morning Line
How would YOU do it with this info...
#......ML.......Pwr #
1......20.........64
2......15.........67
4......2.5........66
5......12.........59
6......12.........77
7......2...........87
8......20.........42
9......6...........49
10....8...........49
Thank you
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For the morning line first, you need to convert it to a 100% line.
1 = 1/(20+1) = 4.76%
2 = 1/(15+1) = 6.25%
4 = 1/(2.5+1) = 28.57%
5 = 1/(12+1) = 7.69%
6 = 1/(12+1) = 7.69%]
7 = 1/(2+1) = 33.33%
8 = 1/(20+1) = 4.76%
9 = 1/(6+1) = 14.29%
10 = 1/(8+1) = 11.11%
Total: 118.46%
Usually this would be a little higher but the scratch kept it down a bit.
To convert to 100% line, use this: 100/118.46 = 0.8442
1 = 4.76%*.8442 = 4.01% = 1 / .0402 - 1 = 23.94 to 1
2 = 6.25%*.8442 = 5.27% = 1 / .0527 - 1 = 17.98 to 1
the rest look like this in the end:
4 = 3.15 to 1
5 = 14.40 to 1
6 = 14.40 to 1
7 = 2.55 to 1
8 = 23.94 to 1
9 = 7.29 to 1
10 = 9.66 to 1
I'll hit the power rating in a few...
Last edited by cj; 05-28-2020 at 03:56 PM.
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05-28-2020, 03:57 PM
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#3
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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This should help with the power rating:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...3&postcount=26
From there, it is just a matter of how much you want to weigh the two different sets of data.
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05-28-2020, 04:01 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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WOW...that was great...
and
I was thinking you hated me....
Thank you CJ
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05-28-2020, 04:06 PM
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#5
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
WOW...that was great...
and
I was thinking you hated me....
Thank you CJ
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No problem
Of course I do not hate you. That is silly. You're a horseplayer.
I did the morning line stuff on the fly so the math isn't guaranteed. Of course I'd set it up in a spreadsheet or computer program for simplicity, not too tough to do. If you post how you decide to blend them I could make a template in a few minutes, then you just enter the ML and power rating for each horse and it spits out an odds line.
Last edited by cj; 05-28-2020 at 04:08 PM.
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05-28-2020, 04:07 PM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
No problem
Of course I do not hate you. That is silly. You're a horseplayer.
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05-28-2020, 04:26 PM
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#7
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
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http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...2&postcount=10
That is an even better example for the power ratings. Wish I could find the spreadsheet that used to be posted. I have it around somewhere, will look tonight.
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05-28-2020, 04:30 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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that would be nice...just plug in numbers...
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05-28-2020, 04:31 PM
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#9
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,925
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
That is an even better example for the power ratings. Wish I could find the spreadsheet that used to be posted. I have it around somewhere, will look tonight.
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I have the old LineMaker.xls file which I believe is your creation or came from either here or the old PaceFigs site. I am not sure if that's the one you're talking about.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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05-28-2020, 04:32 PM
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#10
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
I have the old LineMaker.xls file which I believe is your creation or came from either here or the old PaceFigs site. I am not sure if that's the one you're talking about.
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Yep, that is the one. Feel free to post it if you don't mind, would save me the time of finding it.
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05-28-2020, 04:38 PM
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#11
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Thoro.../dp/B01FKRV8A8
Winning-Thoroughbred Strategies covers a lot of this stuff- power ratings, odds lines, etc....
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-28-2020, 04:39 PM
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#12
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,925
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Here ya go.
WTS is one of my favorite books. I modified his method a bit and coded it into Handifast, so the S-P, C-C, and Power Numbers are close to his version.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
Last edited by headhawg; 05-28-2020 at 04:44 PM.
Reason: added info
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05-28-2020, 04:47 PM
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#13
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
that would be nice...just plug in numbers...
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What cutoff would use for a contender? How important is a point? Just a rough guide of what you think is relevant for the power numbers.
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05-28-2020, 05:26 PM
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#14
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
What cutoff would use for a contender? How important is a point? Just a rough guide of what you think is relevant for the power numbers.
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Thats something i'd like to figure out....
My style play is to look at top 4 contenders......
On the Value Capper thread , MP makes a "VALUE" line cutoff....
I like to get one too..
Appreciate this guys...
Last edited by mikesal57; 05-28-2020 at 05:28 PM.
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05-28-2020, 05:28 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
Here ya go.
WTS is one of my favorite books. I modified his method a bit and coded it into Handifast, so the S-P, C-C, and Power Numbers are close to his version.
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Power Number is one of the top significant factors in HF...
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