all deep closers are dicey picks in the KD

[burnsy]

The way American Horse racing is it’s a dicey situation in most races . The stalkers win the most . The races are laden with front running type horses . The breeding has been angled this way for years . And it’s not like the Jockeys don’t know this too . So, you get out there , get position then you pack it down and stride . The horse that will attempt to close is already disadvantaged. Add the smaller fields and it just gets exaggerated. Now, the closers do win from time to time . But there are so many races where they are at the mercy of the pace . This is why I thought Zenyatta was such a great horse . She didn’t lack a punch .. ever! No matter how the race played out she was coming like a freight train . There are very, very few horses that can do that . Look at the last two winners of the derby ..both had closing kicks ..,.. both never won again . So, this is one of those full field races where there is a chance to have a meltdown. So, at least it’s a little less dicey. It’s more about finding the gap or opening in some cases because there are twenty horses and about 15 -17 of them are tiring and coming back at you .

[Bullet Plane]

The following is a survey of the last 7 with horses at least 25-1 that finished in the superfecta:

2023: 4th Disarm, post #11, closer, 27.12 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 3/5

3rd in Lexington with 90 BSF
2nd in LA derby with 90 BSF

superfecta payout $15,643.85 (1 dollar)

2022: 1st Rich Strike, post #20, closer, 80.80 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 1/5

3rd in Jeff Ruby 84 BSF (synthetic)
4th in JBatt 76 BSF (synthetic)

2022: 4th Simplification, post # 13, Closer, 35.3 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 1/5

3rd Florida Derby 92 (E/P r/s)
1st FOY 96 (midpack)

superfecta payout $321,500

2021: 2nd Mandaloun, post #7, E/P, 26.90 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 3/5

6th LA Derby 82
1st Risen Star 98

superfecta $9456.40

2020: 3rd Mr Big News, post #7, closer, 46.5 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 2/5

6th Blue Grass 88 BSF
1st Oaklawn stakes 86 BSF

superfecta payout $ 729.58

2019: 2nd Country House, post # 18, midpack, 65.20 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 3/5

3rd Arkansas Derby 91, closer
4th La Derby 87,closer

superfecta payout $51,400.10

2018: 4th Instilled Regard, post #15, 85.10 to 1, Derby 1/2 45 3/5

4th SA derby 90 closer
4th Risen Star 91, midpack

superfecta $ 19,618.25

2017: 2nd Lookin at Lee, post # 1, closer, 33.20 to 1, Derby 1/2 46 2/5

3rd Arkansas Derby 91
6th Rebel 86

3rd Battle of Midway, post # 11, E/P, 40-1

2nd SA Derby 88 E/P
1st OC 75K 84 P

superfecta $75,947.

In summary, it looks like closers outrun their odds in most running's of this race. Maybe it's because some of the horses just don't want to go the distance and the closers just clunk up.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[burnsy]

Bullet Plane , you are correct . Once you get by the “win slot” most years the key to all exotics is …… what bomb will clunk up . Just as you pointed out . You can monkey with some key “logical stuff “ but those Bonanza pay outs are mostly due to who chugged up there late .

[plainolebill]

Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Imperialism and Limehouse. Huge super.

[sam i am]

Sierra Leone 9/2
Catching Freedom 8-1
Honor Marie 12-1

all have 0 QSP

When was the last time a horse with 0 QSP won the derby???