Ray Taulbot Selections

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

For me , its still just a little confusing....

Need to explain what I have in circled RED...to you its fine ...others?

I can see FULCRUM on top there but why/what is W2W doing there to?

"PACE SENARIO" fine

Those 2 column of odds...what are they?

Same Trainer, Same Race.....not really needed?

What that "H2 LUZZI" line is ? and why its needed?

Bottom Line I believe its selections....So just say selections...

Why are other races there too....too confusion....

I know it works for you....but others need to understand too

Just my opinion....

Will markup a day soon with some analysis

[equusvates]

Will have Saturday. I'm lazy.

Computer acting funky, have a lot of windows opened, 7. Will not let me send a PM.

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

For me , its still just a little confusing....

Need to explain what I have in circled RED...to you its fine ...others?

I can see FULCRUM on top there but why/what is W2W doing there to?

"PACE SENARIO" fine

Those 2 column of odds...what are they?

Same Trainer, Same Race.....not really needed?

What that "H2 LUZZI" line is ? and why its needed?

Bottom Line I believe its selections....So just say selections...

Why are other races there too....too confusion....

I know it works for you....but others need to understand too

Just my opinion....

The EvGuide.pdf attempts to explain the angles. W2W or SOS HX, is stating that the HX has the "potential" to go wire to wire. If lime color, the horse is "fast enough " to get to the first and second call first. If yellow, the horse only controls the fist call. The "jumped to" is shown because throughout the years I noticed that at more than a random occurrence, the horses close to each other in the next race. I see this at times when that 2/1 runs right next to the 20/1, last and second to last. I guess everyone knows about horses coming from the same race. In the past they called them tandem horses. Pizzolla called them "reversers". Pizzolla would often key the horse that ran ahead of the others horses second. For the odds shown, the first column of odds are the morning line or off odds if we know the results. The second column of odds are the "PROGRAM" odds. The PROGRAM uses a 100 percent line. Most morning line makers create a line of about 120 percent line. I have seen as bad as 145 percent because they just can't make a horse 99/1.

The colors are used to highlight ranking, running styles or angle impact.

Lime to red. When used to go to the track, one guy just wanted my TYPE 5 horses. He loved them at a price.

Yellow W2W or SOS tend to tire if pressed.

Again, will markup a few races soon, "before" the race.

[equusvates]

As I have stated in the past, I do not bet horse races. I love blackjack and 9/6 video poker. The rankings shown are out of the box. For the most part when I gave selections at the track I may change 1 or two rankings, or, throw it all out and go with closers, front runners or class angles. Sometimes I see a track bias and give out the beneficiaries.

So don't have a lot of faith, I don't. Hopefully by summer, I will believe. Hard way to make easy money.

[Saratoga]

Looking over quite a few races last 2 days...

I find your "Program Odds" pretty good....

Keep it up!!

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

Looking over quite a few races last 2 days...

I find your "Program Odds" pretty good....

Keep it up!!

Thanks. But at times I have to say really? I know why though. Lack of horses firing any angles or coming from a series of slow races where they performed well.

I know I did not clearly explain the pace scenario. People at the track often misunderstood what it was saying. The scenario only considers running style and does not take anything else into consideration.

Briefly,

The first horse in the "PACE SCENARIO" list, is projected to benefit the most from the expected pace pressure of the race. The last horses the least. But remember, these are projections into a "random" event.

LIME: early horses
CYAN: no advantage early or late
LIGHT MAGENTA: late running horses
RED: extreme pressure expects a meltdown are.

Stated before, but believe in reiterating, in late and extreme race with ugly late horses, those last and second to last front runners can come on late to win at a price. I don't remember the races, but I saw two today that paid "huge".

[equusvates]

Remember no late scr's yet and the also eligibles are still in the race.

Good luck to all.




The God Father, Michael Corleone: "It's not personal Sonny, these bets are strictly business."

[equusvates]

Fist Full Of Dollars, Joe:

I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. You see, my bet don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughin' at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it.

[equusvates]

Originally Posted by Saratoga

For me , its still just a little confusing....

Need to explain what I have in circled RED...to you its fine ...others?

I can see FULCRUM on top there but why/what is W2W doing there to?

"PACE SENARIO" fine

Those 2 column of odds...what are they?

Same Trainer, Same Race.....not really needed?

What that "H2 LUZZI" line is ? and why its needed?

Bottom Line I believe its selections....So just say selections...

Why are other races there too....too confusion....

I know it works for you....but others need to understand too

Just my opinion....

From time to time, it may pop in my head that maybe I can give y'all additional clarity. The preference for "turf" "route" races, foreign horses are: IRISH - BRITISH - FRENCH - GERMAN.

Just using Saratoga as a prompt.

[equusvates]

And one more thing.

The TPP, true pace performance, is a rating that declares how well the horse has performed in previous races against the "expected" true pace estimated by the program. The number has a recency bias so that why a real good performance is greater than 1.00, 100%. I was afraid to show how I actually use it, in that, horses with less than 4 races can never be rated at 1.0 or higher.
Also, those horses cannot get a recency bias. So a horse with less than 4 races with good true pace number(s), I can see on my monitor but is not printed on the pdf file. A horse with one ratable paceline may get a 0.25. That is perfect for one paceline. And, a horse with three pacelines at 0.75 is also perfect. Perfect means that for every ratable race, the horse matched or exceeded the expected true pace. Ratable because you all know some races should be ignored.

[equusvates]

The Derby?, What a mess.

[equusvates]

Add chronological, less jumping around.