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05-06-2017, 10:14 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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HONG KONG / SHA TIN - SUN 5/7
Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet! It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with big fields 9 of 10 races All on the Turf.
Post Time Race #1 1:00 AM SUN EST
TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
Theres also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#
For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action its available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...gRedirect=true
I wont be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections will all be based on a static tote analysis will follow.
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05-07-2017, 12:23 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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EARLY SELECTIONS
Ive taken a look at the M/Ls in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on the Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
There are 3 very competitive races this morning: #2 - #4 - #8 - #9
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.
R#1 - 1600M (8F) T
...1-3 W/ 4-7-10-12 ......1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #5 Watch Live tote activity)
R#2 - 2000M (10F) T
.....1-4 W/ 2-5-6
....1:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 Watch Live tote activity)
R#3 - 1200M (6F) T..........2-5 W/ 9-1-7-4..........2:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #6 Watch Live tote activity)
R#4 - 1600M (8F) T
....3-5 W/ 2-8-1-12
.
2:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #9 Watch Live tote activity)
R#5 - 2000M (8F) T
.7-4 W/ 5-1-6-8.........3:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #11 Watch Live tote activity)
R#6 - 1000M (5F) T
.....1-4 W/ 2-3-7-6
..3:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #13 Watch Live tote activity)
R#7 - 1600M (8F) T..........4-2 W/ 1-3................4:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 Watch Live tote activity)
R#8 - 1200M (6F) T.
....3-4 W/ 2-5-10-6
.4:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 Watch Live tote activity)
R#9 - 1200M (6F) T.
....1-2 W/ 13-6-3-5
.5:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #10 Watch Live tote activity)
R#10 - 1400M (7F) T........1-9 W/ 2-3-6-7
.....5:50AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #8 Watch Live tote activity)
Good Luck today if youre playing!
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05-07-2017, 12:25 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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Verticals
1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with
2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value its sometime even worthwhile
(when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all
of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F
. B w/C-D-E-F
.C w/D-E-F
.D w/E-F
..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)
Either of these same structures above can be used with
the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money
with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also
potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.
3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive,
but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others itll be 80 Bets,
but theres potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.
4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
Its in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly
after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins..
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05-07-2017, 12:27 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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Dutching
Top 3-Entry Dutch Play & Pass examples:
Early or Live Selections: 2-5 w/ 6-3-1-8
Results: R#1 6-5-1-11
....Dutch Profit Margin 116% (PLAY)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #2 3.8/1
#5 15/1
#6 4.2/1
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.2 15.0 BET PRF
$10 $10 $32
$32 $30 $10 $71 $82 116%
$154 $154 $154
Early or Live Selections: 4-7 w/ 2-5-1-3
Results: R#2 7-1-10-4
...
.Dutch Profit Margin 46% (PASS)
U.S. Odds @ 4 mins to post: #4 2.1/1
#7 2.7/1
#2 10/1
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 2.7 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $7 $22
$43 $36 $12 $91 $42 46%
$133 $133 $132
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05-07-2017, 12:29 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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And Dont Forget!
If the dividend (your return) exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, ![Unreal (Faint)](http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/49.gif)
ALL winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners
(including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.)
are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified.
(Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)
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05-07-2017, 01:13 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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R#1 - 1-3 W/ 4-7-10-12 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 7-10-4-3 Live Dutch 87% Profit Margin HIT
4th choice $21.40 Early & 3rd choice Live & $37.00 QUIN / $492.40 TRI BX
Placer #10 took the late action, but the Winner saw heavy activity in the Quinella pool!
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05-07-2017, 01:15 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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Results: R#1 - Live Dutch HIT
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.6 3.6 9.0 BET PRF
$9 $9 $20
$20 $20 $9 $49 $43 87%
$92 $92 $92
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05-07-2017, 01:44 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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R#2 - 1-4 W/ 2-5-6 - (w/#8 Tote Watch - Fin 1st)
Live Tote Results: 8-1-3-6 Live Dutch 44% Profit Margin - PASS
Out Early & 3rd choice $12.80 Live & $15.20 QUIN
No action on #2 (early 3rd choice) & replaced w/#8 Tote watch choice
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05-07-2017, 01:46 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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Results: R#2 - Live Dutch PASS
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.3 5.4 8.5 BET PRF
$5 $13 $19
$19 $7 $5 $30 $13 44%
$44 $44 $44
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05-07-2017, 02:19 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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R#3 - 2-5 W/ 9-1-7-4 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 2-9-4-6 Dutch 2% Profit Margin - PASS
Top choice $3.30 Early & Live $10.20 QUIN / $132.40 TRI BX
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05-07-2017, 02:20 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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Results: R#3 Live Dutch PASS
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.6 4.3 4.9 BET PRF
$3 $11 $12
$12 $4 $3 $19 $0 2%
$19 $19 $19
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05-07-2017, 03:00 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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R#4 - 3-5 W/ 2-8-1-12 - All of that one! (w/#9 Tote Watch Fin 3rd)
Live Tote Results: 1-12-9-8 Dutch 85% Profit Margin - HIT
5th choice $9.20 Early & 3rd choice Live & $26.10 QUIN/ $966.80 TRI BX (w/#9 Live Tote watch)
Dead on the board were #3 (early Top choice) & #5 (early 2nd choice) Both dropped & replaced w/#9 Tote watch 5th choice saw good action)
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05-07-2017, 03:02 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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Results: R#4 Live Dutch HIT
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 3.6 9.0 BET PRF
$9 $9 $20
$20 $20 $9 $49 $41 85%
$90 $90 $90
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05-07-2017, 03:21 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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R#5 - 7-4 W/ 5-1-6-8 -
Live Tote Results: 9-7-4-6 – Dutch 94% Profit Margin - OUT
Out Early & Live - Some good early action on the Winner, but faded late
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05-07-2017, 03:23 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,119
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Results: R#5 Live Dutch OUT
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.1 5.5 25.0 BET PRF
$6 $13 $52
$52 $25 $6 $83 $78 94%
$161 $161 $161
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