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01-20-2019, 04:28 AM
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#376
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.….…. 7-4-5 W/ 1-3-11 ….….4:15 AM EST
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11-5-3-9– Dutch Loss 81% Profit Margin / $13.10 Quinella & $712.00 Triple / ALL of that one!
Last edited by Nitro; 01-20-2019 at 04:30 AM.
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01-20-2019, 04:41 AM
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#377
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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UPDATE: R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T...... 5-11-4 W/ 1-6-9
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.4:50 AM EST
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01-20-2019, 04:56 AM
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#378
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 102
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Congrats on one helluva night Nitro!!
Well done sir!
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01-20-2019, 05:02 AM
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#379
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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Quote:
UPDATE: R#10 - 1400M C2 (7F)T...... 5-11-4 W/ 1-6-9
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.4:50 AM EST
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11-5-6-9 Dutch Win 15% Profit Margin-Passed / $6.20 Quinella & $163.20 Triple / ALL of that one!
It turned out to be very profitable card based on the many decent verticals plays.
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01-20-2019, 05:05 AM
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#380
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramblin
Congrats on one helluva night Nitro!!
Well done sir!
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Thanks Ramblin! Sometimes the tote board analysis is right on the money.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
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01-22-2019, 08:11 PM
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#381
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,801
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. 40th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 58 Degrees Clear 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10 mph.
Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course C, track listed: Good
Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190123_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings
Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
Vulnerable favourite on the card:
None
Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 277 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 12th)
Race 5 Mother Wishes (44-1)
Race 206 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 8th, Second: 10th)
Race 6 Calling The Shots (35-1)
Race 238 (Winners: 1st, 4th, 7th & 12th)
Race 7 Bigwood (7-5)
Race 7 Namjong Plus (10-1)
Race 7 Rickfield (7-1)
In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None
Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 4 Very Sweet Orange (10-1)
Race 5 Charity Grand (7-1)
Race 6 Music Addition (9-2)
Horses for courses running tonight:
None
Distance specialists running tonight:
None
Class specialists running tonight:
Race 2 Mr Right (9-1)
Last race watch list horses running tonight:
None
Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 4 Naboo Star (5-1)
Key Plays:
Race 4 Naboo Star (5-1)
Race 8 Bank On Red (3-1)
Longshots:
Race 5 Merrygowin (11-1)
Race 6 Breeders Star (10-1)
Race 7 Ping Hai Treasure (23-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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01-23-2019, 12:26 AM
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#382
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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HONG KONG HAPPY VALLEY - WED - 1/23/19
Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf: [B] (from top Class to bottom) -
(3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5,
Post Time Race #1 – 6:15 AM WED EST
Good Luck if you’re playing!
R#1 - 2200M C5 (11F)T……. 6-4-9 W/ 11-2-8 ….…...6:15 AM EST –
R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T…….… 7-11-1 W/ 12-6-8 …..…6:45 AM EST –
R#3 – 1650M C5 (8.25F)T… 11-8-2 W/ 10-9-5 .....7:15 AM EST -
R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T…….… 8-10-2 W/ 3-5-4 ….....7:45 AM EST –
R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..… 7-1-11 W/ 8-6-4 ….....8:15 AM EST –
R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…….. 4-10-2 W/ 7-11-3 …….8:45 AM EST – .
R#7 – 1800M C3 (9F)T…….... 1-9-2 W/ 3-4-7 ........9:15 AM EST –
R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.... 4-2-6 W/ 12-10-7 ……9:50 AM EST –
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01-23-2019, 07:13 AM
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#383
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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todays 2nd race
twinspires list the 6/9 $1.30 quinella payout as $43.94
the hk web site indicates the 6/9 return as $338 hk dollars
converting hk$ to usd, $338 x 0.13 = $43.94
why does twinspires indicate a $1.30 quinella payout and not $1 quinella payout
thanks
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-23-2019, 07:43 AM
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#384
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Cleveland
Posts: 17,265
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R4 # Bond Elegance
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01-23-2019, 10:23 AM
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#385
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
todays 2nd race
twinspires list the 6/9 $1.30 quinella payout as $43.94
the hk web site indicates the 6/9 return as $338 hk dollars
converting hk$ to usd, $338 x 0.13 = $43.94
why does twinspires indicate a $1.30 quinella payout and not $1 quinella payout
thanks
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Shift the HKJC payouts 1 decimal to the left (payouts are to HK$10). Thus $338 to 10 = $33.80 to 1
TwinSpires expresses payouts to their minimum bet ($1.30 - due to exchange). $43.94 should be $43.95 (a penny is getting dropped on many payoffs at several ADWs, including Amwager). Thus $43.95 to 1.30 = $33.80 to 1.
At Amwager, the payoff is shown as $67.60 to $2. They're all the same payoff = $33.80 to $1
XpressBet has $0.13 minimums! I don't have that ADW handy at the moment, so not sure how they show their payoffs - likely to $1.
Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System "The Modern Sartin Methodology" . . . . www.rdss2.com
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01-23-2019, 11:55 AM
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#386
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Shift the HKJC payouts 1 decimal to the left (payouts are to HK$10). Thus $338 to 10 = $33.80 to 1
TwinSpires expresses payouts to their minimum bet ($1.30 - due to exchange). $43.94 should be $43.95 (a penny is getting dropped on many payoffs at several ADWs, including Amwager). Thus $43.95 to 1.30 = $33.80 to 1.
At Amwager, the payoff is shown as $67.60 to $2. They're all the same payoff = $33.80 to $1
XpressBet has $0.13 minimums! I don't have that ADW handy at the moment, so not sure how they show their payoffs - likely to $1.
Ted
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THANKS FOR A THOROUGH EXPLAINATION.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-23-2019, 01:19 PM
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#387
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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Quote:
R#1 - 2200M C5 (11F)T
. 6-4-9 W/ 11-2-8
.
...6:15 AM EST
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4-8-2-9 Dutch Win 52% Profit Margin/ $46.50 Quinella & $442.60 Triple / ALL of that one! (Quartet - $6370.40)
Quote:
R#2 - 1000M C4 (5F)T
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7-11-6 W/ 12-1-8 #6 substituted due to heavy betting
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6:45 AM EST
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6-9-2-4 Dutch Win 56% Profit Margin /
Quote:
R#3 1650M C5 (8.25F)T
11-8-2 W/ 10-9-5 .......7:15 AM EST -
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11-2-4-10 Dutch Win 100% Profit Margin/ $30.10 Quinella
Quote:
R#4 - 1200M C4 (6F)T
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8-5-2 W/ 3-10-4
.....7:45 AM EST
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7-8-5-6 Dutch Loss 60% Profit Margin /
Quote:
R#5 - 1650M C4 (8.25F)T..
7-1-11 W/ 8-6-4
.....8:15 AM EST
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11-6-3-1 Dutch Win 41% Profit Margin/Passed $44.20 Quinella
Quote:
R#6 - 1200M C3 (6F)T
.. 4-10-2 W/ 7-11-3
..8:45 AM EST
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4-2-10-6 Dutch Win 70% Profit Margin/ $56.20 Quinella & $337.60 Triple / ALL of that one!
**Dutch Win Betting quota was reached in that race.
Quote:
R#7 1800M C3 (9F)T
.... 1-9-2 W/ 3-4-7 ......9:15 AM EST
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5-11-4-6 Dutch Loss 54% Margin/Passed -Quota Reached
Quote:
R#8 - 1650M C3 (8.25F)T.... 4-2-6 W/ 12-10-7
9:50 AM EST
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4-10-5-6 Dutch Win 160% Profit Margin-Passed - Quota Reached / $15.60 Quinella
It was another very profitable card. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 40% and was hit from the first 4 of 6 playable races. There were a few nice Verticals as well.
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01-25-2019, 02:45 PM
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#388
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
todays 2nd race
twinspires list the 6/9 $1.30 quinella payout as $43.94
the hk web site indicates the 6/9 return as $338 hk dollars
converting hk$ to usd, $338 x 0.13 = $43.94
why does twinspires indicate a $1.30 quinella payout and not $1 quinella payout
thanks
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Shift the HKJC payouts 1 decimal to the left (payouts are to HK$10). Thus $338 to 10 = $33.80 to 1
TwinSpires expresses payouts to their minimum bet ($1.30 - due to exchange). $43.94 should be $43.95 (a penny is getting dropped on many payoffs at several ADWs, including Amwager). Thus $43.95 to 1.30 = $33.80 to 1.
At Amwager, the payoff is shown as $67.60 to $2. They're all the same payoff = $33.80 to $1
XpressBet has $0.13 minimums! I don't have that ADW handy at the moment, so not sure how they show their payoffs - likely to $1.
Ted
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Theres really nothing very complicated about converting the HK$ payoff to US$.
Whatever the HK$ payoff is (for WIN, PLACE, QUINELLA, TRIPLE) just divide that total by 5 to arrive at a $2.00 bet return in US$.
So, if the Quinella paid $338.00 HK$ the US$ return on a $2.00 wager would be $67.60.
Any fractional part less of a $2.00 wager would of course reduce the US$ return.
For a $1.30 US$ wager equals 65% of $2.00. 65% of $67.60 = $43.94 US$
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01-26-2019, 07:26 PM
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#389
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,801
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. January 27, 2019
41st race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 66 Degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of Rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20mph
Post time: 12pm ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course B+2, track listed: Good
Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190127_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings
Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 Kings Trooper (7-2) First time starter draws a suspect field for a Class 4 race, trainer doesnt win too many and usually gets the services of Karis Teetan when he has something special. The Irishman Callan picks up the mount and he is having a terrible year, playing that it continues here.
Horses coming out of key races running today (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 223 (Winners: 1st & 6th, Second: 7th)
Race 2 Nice Fandango (5-1)
Race 204 (Winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 3rd, 5th, 10th & 13th)
Race 4 District Express (14-1)
Race 268 (Winners: 1st & 10th, Second: 7th)
Race 5 Fame And Fortune (11-1)
Race 206 (Winners: 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 8th, Second: 10th)
Race 8 Ka Ying Star (6-1)
In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Star Shine (10-1)
Race 8 Superich (7-1)
Race 10 King Opie (9-2)
Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running today:
Race 3 Ugly Warrior (9-1)
Race 3 Star Shine (10-1)
Race 4 Money Winner (10-1)
Race 5 Dashing Gainer (6-1)
Race 6 Gameplayer Emperor (6-1)
Race 7 Exultant (5-2)
Race 8 Dark Dream (9-5)
Race 9 Midnight Rattler (14-1)
Horses for courses running today:
Race 3 Star Shine (10-1)
Race 7 Glorious Forever (8-5)
Race 7 Pingwu Spark (27-1)
Race 8 Superich (7-1)
Race 10 King Opie (9-2)
Race 10 Perfect Match (5-2)
Distance specialists running today:
Race 3 Ugly Warrior (9-1)
Race 3 New Asia Sunrise (21-1)
Race 6 Winning Supreme (16-1)
Race 7 Dinozzo (23-1)
Class specialists running today:
None
Last race watch list horses running today:
None
Past watch list runners running today:
Race 7 Dinozzo (23-1)
Race 10 Good Beauty (13-1)
Key Plays:
Race 7 Singapore Sling (9-2)
Longshots:
Race 4 Money Winner (10-1)
Race 8 Easy Go Easy Win (16-1)
Race 10 Good Beauty (13-1)
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
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01-26-2019, 11:17 PM
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#390
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 19,041
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HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 1/27/19
Hey there Woody! I noticed that many of your Key Race selections are falling in line with the early tote indicators!
Good Luck this morning!
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