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04-10-2024, 05:24 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 313
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I failed to account for tracks reporting a different base.... so the difference across the whole sample for 10 years is 10%... which is basically explained by the difference in number of combinations and nothing more. 10% in this case is not "much closer" in my mind.
Keeneland being closer will be a product of the slightly higher double takeout previously along with the fact it is a relatively small sample.
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04-10-2024, 05:31 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
This is how I am visualizing it.
Imagine 2 fields of 8.
The double is 1 out of 8 parlayed to 1 out of 8.
The exacta is kind of 1/8 (top horse) parlayed to 1 out of 7 (for 2nd) where the winner's probability/pool money is subtracted to get the probability/price of the 2nd horse.
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I get your reasoning, but you can't assume every second leg of DD will have the same amount of horses as the first leg. Given 2 races with the same number of runners, I would agree.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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04-10-2024, 07:54 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,671
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
I get your reasoning, but you can't assume every second leg of DD will have the same amount of horses as the first leg.
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Right, I was just trying to make the point that once you know the winner of the exacta, that's one less horse in the race that can come in 2nd.
Poindexter made the point better. There are fewer combinations.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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04-11-2024, 08:04 AM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,808
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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 04-11-2024 at 08:14 AM.
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04-14-2024, 12:41 AM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,034
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Code:
5-Apr 5.47 20.24 110.71 58.62 63.72
5-Apr 88.98 135.44 12,051.45 11,605.31 12,614.47
6-Apr 13.79 35.49 489.41 572.26 622.02
6-Apr 45.98 16.17 743.50 367.69 399.66
6-Apr 22.38 7.45 166.73 138.39 150.42
7-Apr 33.44 15.56 520.33 493.12 536.00
7-Apr 19.94 28.88 575.87 596.62 648.50
10-Apr 9.97 9.87 98.40 84.35 91.68
10-Apr 26.06 6.59 171.74 128.10 139.24
11-Apr 11.31 10.22 115.59 125.32 136.22
11-Apr 39.96 19.2 767.23 666.56 724.52
12-Apr 6.93 4.38 30.35 25.78 28.02
12-Apr 14.29 6.94 99.17 115.17 125.18
13-Apr 92.88 42.13 3,913.03 1,841.64 2,001.78
13-Apr 18.89 105.24 1,987.98 2,309.99 2,510.86
21,841.50 19,128.91 20,792.29
Okay, did not line up great, but you can get the point. Updated after todays races, the daily double parlays have actually paid more than the pick 4s. Largely in part to the whopper daily double parlay in the early pick 4 today. But just about every one is holding its own in payouts.
Just a reminder, each line from left to right is
1st dd, 2nd dd, dd parlay, pick 4 less 8% (which would be projected), $1 pick 4
The bottom line is the total of double parlays, total of projected and total pick 4
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04-14-2024, 02:55 AM
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#51
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,832
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
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send it in to make up for it?
seriously?
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04-21-2024, 01:02 AM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,034
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This will be my final update as I think the sample size is pretty sufficient to show that the daily double parlays are definitely paying well relative to the pick 4's in the same races.
Code:
5-Apr 5.47 20.24 $110.71 $58.62 $63.72
5-Apr 88.98 135.44 $12,051.45 $11,605.31 $12,614.47
6-Apr 13.79 35.49 $489.41 $572.26 $622.02
6-Apr 45.98 16.17 $743.50 $367.69 $399.66
6-Apr 22.38 7.45 $166.73 $138.39 $150.42
7-Apr 33.44 15.56 $520.33 $493.12 $536.00
7-Apr 19.94 28.88 $575.87 $596.62 $648.50
10-Apr 9.97 9.87 $98.40 $84.35 $91.68
10-Apr 26.06 6.59 $171.74 $128.10 $139.24
11-Apr 11.31 10.22 $115.59 $125.32 $136.22
11-Apr 39.96 19.2 $767.23 $666.56 $724.52
12-Apr 6.93 4.38 $30.35 $25.78 $28.02
12-Apr 14.29 6.94 $99.17 $115.17 $125.18
13-Apr 92.88 42.13 $3,913.03 $1,841.64 $2,001.78
13-Apr 18.89 105.24 $1,987.98 $2,309.99 $2,510.86
14-Apr 7.98 46.46 $370.75 $341.36 $371.04
14-Apr 142.75 14.03 $2,002.78 $1,341.47 $1,458.12
17-Apr 88.2 10.35 $912.87 $789.36 $858.00
17-Apr 9.3 18.06 $167.96 $171.64 $186.56
18-Apr 7.14 29.16 $208.20 $276.37 $300.40
18-Apr 196.28 385.78 $75,720.90 $58,768.68 $63,879.00
19-Apr 31.09 350.98 $10,911.97 $13,761.25 $14,957.88
19-Apr 29 13.85 $401.65 $363.55 $395.16
20-Apr 13.54 32.46 $439.51 $288.48 $313.56
20-Apr 39.13 19.14 $748.95 $688.60 $748.48
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