Pick of the 20-1 litter: Just Steel

[Aerocraft67]

Earned a big TFUS fig placing behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby. Track assigned a closing bias, which flatters his early placement. Not many saw past his muddied form at 32-1.

After winning the Ed Brown Stakes—at Churchill—as a 2 y.o., he was no match for Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones, but held better than Mystic Dan. No match for that one in the muddy Southwest after that. Caught five wide on both turns in the Rebel.

Concede the muddy track to Mystic Dan, toss the double wide trip in the Rebel, and maybe he turns the tables on Catching Freedom at a price in the Derby. Runs evenly early and late. Stamina in the pedigree. Won over the surface. Hall of fame trainer. Things to like.

Peers at 20-1 Encino and Stronghold also worth a look. Although David Aragona at DRF has Encino at 15-1. Maybe Resilience, too, who Aragona has at 25-1. I can do without Mystic Dan, Track Phantom, Dornoch, and Honor Marie (that one especially at Aragona's 12-1).

Beyond that, maybe Grand Mo wants to go farther than the longest shots, but I'd only want a little piece of him from the bottom three choices.

I see Andy Serling has Domestic Product, and Aragona has him 25-1. I can't get there, but tip of the hat.

[boys at tosconova]

that was very impressive race vs muth. raced wide for the duration and was moving well late. throw out the rebel (which you can) and you have an improving horse every start at 3.

looks like a solid longshot imo

[burnsy]

I don’t know if he’ll stick at 30-1 but the price will be good . I kind of like Endlessly. If it does come up wet even better . Whooped the competition in the Jeff Ruby . Not the first horse to go the turf route . It’s worked before . Under the radar horse with a good record. Last year his third race of the cycle was a doozy .

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I don’t know if he’ll stick at 30-1 but the price will be good . I kind of like Endlessly. If it does come up wet even better . Whooped the competition in the Jeff Ruby . Not the first horse to go the turf route . It’s worked before . Under the radar horse with a good record. Last year his third race of the cycle was a doozy .

I'll be surprised if Endlessly runs in the Derby and not the American Turf race.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I'll be surprised if Endlessly runs in the Derby and not the American Turf race.

he’s not even entered in that race at all . He’s entered in the Derby . And it’s 5 days away . He drew 14 and I doubt they’re going to pass it up . I seriously doubt anything changes unless he has to scratch for health reasons .

The fact that people say that or totally discount this horse . Makes me like him more .
The race is already drawn he’s not there !

[groupie doll]

Interestingly, Just Steel has the highest Equibase figure in the field (for his Ark Derby run). I do like him a bit, though not sure I'd make him my top pick out of the 20-1 priced horses. He's got a lot of foundation, and may be primed for another jump forward, plus he likely won't be as far back early as some others, if all else is equal with regards to his trip.
Maybe I just talked myself onto him more there...

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

that was very impressive race vs muth. raced wide for the duration and was moving well late. throw out the rebel (which you can) and you have an improving horse every start at 3.

looks like a solid longshot imo

Rewatch it and see if you catch something at the top of the stretch… he might’ve made it close.


Hes going to be my key underneath in my exotics. He hasn’t won at 2 turns but I don’t care

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Rewatch it and see if you catch something at the top of the stretch… he might’ve made it close.


Hes going to be my key underneath in my exotics. He hasn’t won at 2 turns but I don’t care

good catch. he did stumble. his gait wasn't the same either. he buried the 3rd place mystik dan who didn't seem to like the distance. can't see that horse being competitive going even further in the KD