Horse Racing Nation Ranking Of 2024 Ky Derby

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...erby_field_123

[Aerocraft67]

The ranking downgrades Fierceness to fourth, and Just a Touch to 10th, behind five 20-1s. They're otherwise in morning line order (except Society Man, nudged to non-factor 16th from no-chance 18th).

Granted, eight morning line entrants at 20-1 doesn't provide much basis for order. Fifth-ranked Honor Marie does seem like the consensus choice among them.

I see Stronghold, Encino, and Resilience in about the same spots. But I like the Justify colts more, and Honor Marie & Mystic Dan less. Also trying to make use of Catalytic and Grand Mo the First. But that's a stretch.

Maybe it'll just be a formful race.

[boys at tosconova]

this is an embarrassing, hack article with little to no research, planning or forethought by the author.

this it's what happens when you write about horses all the time. you're careless and cut corners. it basically becomes a chore.

it's sad that HRN actually paid for this.

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

this is an embarrassing, hack article with little to no research, planning or forethought by the author.

Now that you said that out loud, I'll add that I've seen better here on PA for sure. I was going to say, "that's as bold as it gets" about the downgrades of Fierceness and Just a Touch.

Then again, several of the top handicappers have weighed in, and the only bold call I've seen is Andy Serling on Domestic Product.

I probably won't indulge myself in analyzing the whole field this year. The bottom third or so doesn't really warrant it.

Here's how I've sorted them into performance tiers.

1. Fierceness I've analyzed in his thread
2. Sierra Leone probably the better top choice, but there's consensus
3. Just a Touch the second coming of Mage
4. Forever Young and Catching Freedom round out the top five legitimate contenders, although I've cooled a bit on
5. Just Steel my clever pick among the eight 20-1 shots. Will focus on him but not require to win
6. Stronghold Encino look to outrun their odds if they remain overlooked. Not serious contenders, but prefer over peers for spreading underneath
7. Resilience a cut below the two above but also overlooked
8. Catalytic and Grand Mo the First bombs away. Catalytic a class below Just a Touch but similar upside interest on precocious record. Grand Mo could just hang around longer than many of the 20-1s and way outrun his odds. Not that finishing 6th does much good.

Can't make a case for anyone else. Other than playing against these two that I think will be overbet (so there's your perverse exacta)

Honor Marie and Mystik Dan

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Now that you said that out loud, I'll add that I've seen better here on PA for sure. I was going to say, "that's as bold as it gets" about the downgrades of Fierceness and Just a Touch.

Then again, several of the top handicappers have weighed in, and the only bold call I've seen is Andy Serling on Domestic Product.

I probably won't indulge myself in analyzing the whole field this year. The bottom third or so doesn't really warrant it.

Here's how I've sorted them into performance tiers.

1. Fierceness I've analyzed in his thread
2. Sierra Leone probably the better top choice, but there's consensus
3. Just a Touch the second coming of Mage
4. Forever Young and Catching Freedom round out the top five legitimate contenders, although I've cooled a bit on
5. Just Steel my clever pick among the eight 20-1 shots. Will focus on him but not require to win
6. Stronghold Encino look to outrun their odds if they remain overlooked. Not serious contenders, but prefer over peers for spreading underneath
7. Resilience a cut below the two above but also overlooked
8. Catalytic and Grand Mo the First bombs away. Catalytic a class below Just a Touch but similar upside interest on precocious record. Grand Mo could just hang around longer than many of the 20-1s and way outrun his odds. Not that finishing 6th does much good.

Can't make a case for anyone else. Other than playing against these two that I think will be overbet (so there's your perverse exacta)

Honor Marie and Mystik Dan

things seem somewhat chalky. pick after pick it reads like fierceness, sierra and touch followed by 2 more that are pretty logical with large ML odds

too many people like the deep closers in this years derby imo

worst case freedom and sierra are 19/20 for 2 calls. (it's not out of the realm of being accurate) honor marie is going to take action as well and could easily be in the same spot...lol i'm not say these are bad horses or you shouldn't play them. i will say that they're going to take heavy action and should be compromised in this race.

seems like in the KD you never have the actually closer that runs big in this race. it's almost never the ones you expect.

i maybe wrong. but i expect problems for sierra. i could see him getting pinched, hit and get messed up as he retreats to the rear and they run to the first turn. not to mention being almost 20L back and having to weave around everybody once he decides to run. dicey pick imo

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

things seem somewhat chalky. pick after pick it reads like fierceness, sierra and touch followed by 2 more that are pretty logical with large ML odds

Agreed.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

too many people like the deep closers
worst case freedom and sierra are 19/20 for 2 calls.
honor marie is going to take action as well and could easily be in the same spot
i'm not say these are bad horses or you shouldn't play them. i will say that they're going to take heavy action and should be compromised in this race.
seems like in the KD you never have the actually closer that runs big in this race. it's almost never the ones you expect.

The pace will be fast by virtue of field size and at least two that want the lead, two more that run early, and maybe others that uncharacteristically send and hope. But it's not like there's an abundance of do-or-die speeds here to ensure a meltdown. You may be on to something with overbet closers.

Maybe the way to address this is have a slot for "closer," and use them as one unit. So play in the closer slot, but don't play them to finish together. Even if two of them do make the number, heavy action will depress the payoff. Dropping the and adding a deeper shot emboldens the move, although later runners , , , and aren't certified closers.

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i expect problems for sierra. i could see him getting pinched, hit and get messed up as he retreats to the rear and they run to the first turn. not to mention being almost 20L back and having to weave around everybody once he decides to run. dicey pick imo

All that with the inside post. Maybe he goes with the flow, saves ground, and works out a decent position. But seems more likely an inevitable crush of horses squeeze him into trouble. He deserves the attention, but a lot to overcome at a short price.

Getting past the top two makes things more interesting.

To be fair, David Aragona did pick Forever Young on top. He's a somewhat distant third choice at worst, maybe even fifth choice if Just a Touch and Catching Freedom take money.

Speaking of which, on a cautionary note, Craig Milkowski is all in on the closers, for his top three. Turns out, he and David landed on the co third choices on David's line on top. They both include but exclude .