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05-13-2015, 05:14 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 379
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Best Value
Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?
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05-13-2015, 05:25 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 333
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Passing on the race is the best value.
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05-13-2015, 05:34 PM
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#3
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nads1420
Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?
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Passing the race is probably best..
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-13-2015, 05:37 PM
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#4
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,310
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You want American Pharoah to win. In this sense, you can play against him with those funny pool odds because of all the $2 Win souvenir tickets on him and score. Or you will be able to witness a coronation.
WIN/WIN
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-14-2015, 08:35 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.
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05-14-2015, 08:01 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,534
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nads1420
Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?
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although not made public. all insiders trackside say it's pretty much a known fact that AP is superior to dorts.
Last edited by boys at tosconova; 05-14-2015 at 08:02 PM.
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05-14-2015, 08:18 PM
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#7
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nads1420
Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?
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If you feel American Pharoah is a huge underlay, then Dortmund is a value.
If you love American Pharoah, 7/2 isn't much, if any value.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-14-2015, 08:58 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.
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He barely passed Dortmund and Firing Line at 10X those odds in the last. Add to that the whipping amounts and I can only hope you are being sarcastic with the odds and value.
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05-14-2015, 10:46 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DelMarJay
He barely passed Dortmund and Firing Line at 10X those odds in the last. Add to that the whipping amounts and I can only hope you are being sarcastic with the odds and value.
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Sarcastic? Hardly.
He put Dortmund away with more than an eighth of a mile to go in the Derby and Firing Line had an absolutely perfect trip and was finished with a sixteenth to go. The shorter distance is not going to help. AP most likely goes to the lead and never looks back.
He is vastly superior to everything in this field just as he was in the Derby.
I said he should have been even money in the Derby. I got a gift at 2.9-1. I expect more of the same this time too.
Finally, in regards to the whipping. It is meaningless. I could care less if pretty pony fans are upset. The horse was not affected by it in the least.
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05-14-2015, 11:07 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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AP to show I think will be the best value, last year CC payed 20 cents to the dollar as a .50 fav with the top 3 choices finishing ITM, I think one of FL or Dort will run out so the payoff should be better this year with just as good as a fav.
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05-14-2015, 11:10 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 2,359
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.
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I HOPE you are kidding. 1/5 is way,way off.
__________________
There are more things in Heaven and Earth Horatio, than are dreamed of in your philosophy.
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05-15-2015, 12:40 AM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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The in the 9th and the in the 10th.
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05-15-2015, 12:58 AM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Firing Line will be bet heavily in here, he will be 2nd choice. Post 1 is a tough spot considering AP's "Style" and the way the race shapes up. Baffert may take Dortmund way back and try and make one run, he may be more effective with that strategy.
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05-15-2015, 01:22 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Some_One
AP to show I think will be the best value, last year CC payed 20 cents to the dollar as a .50 fav with the top 3 choices finishing ITM, I think one of FL or Dort will run out so the payoff should be better this year with just as good as a fav.
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This goes against everything I was taught about show betting. Getting a measly 2.20 to 2.50 payoff on a star horse like American Pharoah is never a good idea.
You're better off going with Danzig Moon or Tale of Verve to show and hoping American Pharoah or one of the big 3 dumps his jockey.
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05-15-2015, 01:24 AM
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#15
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Dortmund needs an early speed favoring track to win. We won't know if there be a an early speed favoring track until Saturday. Without that kind of track, Dortmund chances are very slim (5% or less).
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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