Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 30 votes, 3.80 average.
Old 05-20-2017, 03:57 AM   #3526
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by timtam View Post
Can you make up the Moneyline Report using the Platinum stats?
No timtam....wouldn't that just be repackaging the same program?

If you'll notice, though---PLATINUM also had the $36.00 horse as a longshot---and top power play.

Thanks for your kind words, Vinnie 🤠

Fred, say hello to Aint Bee for me--here's today's Comp Report for CDX. Should be a couple decent payoffs in there.


Last edited by NorCalGreg; 05-20-2017 at 03:59 AM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-20-2017, 08:34 AM   #3527
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
yesterday's E-1 play results




BEL
7TH AUDRIQUE 8-1
3RD ULTIMATE HOLIDAY 15-1 $69.00

BTP
1ST MISTER HOLLOWAY 9-2
7TH RUUD GIRL 12-1

CDX
6TH RECOGNITION 5-1
7TH CANNINGTON 6-1

EVD
8TH FAIRWELL TAX BREAK 6-1
6TH SYRUP CAKE 8-1

GPX
6TH BLACKJACK BABY 6-1 $4.40
4TH USA JEWEL 15-1

INDY
6TH STRUT THE RING 8-1
4TH GRANDPA GRUMPY 3-1


SAX
8TH HANDFULL 6-1
3RD EICHEL 15-1
_________________
_
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-20-2017, 08:57 AM   #3528
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Today's E-1 plays

* No Top-4 Ability @ Bel today

E-1 PLAYS 5/20

BEL
3RD IL SEGRETO 10-1
6TH BATTERY 15-1

APX
7TH HEIR BALL 4-1
4TH FELT IN POCKET 6-1

CDX
10TH NAYLOR 20-1
11TH GOLD SHIELD 15-1

FLX
2ND FRATELLO DEL NORD 2-1
8TH R INCREDIBLE LIFE 6-1

GGF
9TH THE SANDMAN 10-1
10TH CACKLE THE CUDA 12-1

GPX
8TH TOIKEN 20-1
9TH RIGHT UP MY ALLEY 10-1

LAD
7TH MISS LUNAR GAL 10-1
6TH CAN OF SPOTS 6-1

MTH
1ST SOUND OF THE TAP 10-1
8TH TICKLED PINK 9-2

PIM
12TH CATAPULT 10-1
6TH PLEIADIAN 15-1

SAX
11TH BRONZINO 15-1
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-20-2017, 10:20 PM   #3529
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
E-1 PLAY RESULTS

BEL
3RD IL SEGRETO 10-1
6TH BATTERY 15-1

APX
7TH HEIR BALL 4-1 xxscratched
4TH FELT IN POCKET 6-1

CDX
10TH NAYLOR 20-1
11TH GOLD SHIELD 15-1

FLX
2ND FRATELLO DEL NORD 2-1 $5.70
8TH R INCREDIBLE LIFE 6-1xxscratched

GGF
9TH THE SANDMAN 10-1
10TH CACKLE THE CUDA 12-1

GPX
8TH TOIKEN 20-1
9TH RIGHT UP MY ALLEY 10-1

LAD
7TH MISS LUNAR GAL 10-1 xxscratched
6TH CAN OF SPOTS 6-1 $5.60

MTH
1ST SOUND OF THE TAP 10-1
8TH TICKLED PINK 9-2

PIM
12TH CATAPULT 10-1
6TH PLEIADIAN 15-1 xxscratched

SAX
11th BRONZINO xxscratched

Think we're required to keep our ROI if we post picks---so a rough estimate is about +$3.00 .
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-20-2017, 11:33 PM   #3530
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Not much today....1-2-3 nailed the Preakness winner, but all in all no big winners--and no enough small wins to make up for it.
I hear from quite a few EXOTIC BETS! users about the COMPREHENSIVE REPORT. If you have the program--this should be a major part of your handicapping. I could literally redesign this--and sell it as a stand-alone product. It rarely fails to show less than 25% winners...from favorites to $50 payoffs.

If you're struggling to reach profitability--and have some wagering discipline...I strongly recommend Exotic Bets---even if you don't play exotics at all.

Here is today's Pimlico Comp Report. There are 22 horses on this list--do you think you can handicap well enough to at least toss 4? Of course you can. Study the numbers and the toss-outs will be apparent immediately.

A rule of thumb for longshots---this is MY RULE..you may come up with a better one:

If the 4 scores are LESS OR EQUAL to the ML----circle that horse. If you can get anywhere near that odds line----you have a bet. Take a look at who qualified for the longshot method @ Pimlico:



*with no handicapping at all---you had 7 winners out of 22 horses. I personally tossed all 4 horses in the 9th---figured one of the two low prices were a lock. The singles (only selection in race) went 3 for 6. This COMP REPORT is only a small part of EXOTIC BETS! program-NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 05-20-2017 at 11:38 PM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-21-2017, 07:21 AM   #3531
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
The only reason I even bother looking at any type of past performances nowadays---I enjoy doing some detective work.

Hard to believe--but there are some handicappers that don't think "manipulation" goes on regularly. That's fine--believe what you want. There are certain classic signs or tip-offs when a horse's connections are trying to maneuver around for a payday.

First of all--none of what appears to be manipulating --is illegal. It's perfectly fine and has been part of racing forever.
Now....once you realize something's up with a horse--you can be completely correct--and the horse still doesn't win....for a million reasons.

My rule is to make sure it's a decent trainer pulling the strings. In today's 3rd race is a horse named ACKERET @ 8-1ML. Some or all of the "tip-offs" I see--can be explained by any competent trainer. ACKERET'S trainer is Joe Parker---we all know he's surprised bettors more than once with a price horse.

Here are the tip-offs I see--and it didn't take long to realize ol' Joe was pointing his horse for today:

*Looking at this horses racing pattern--he's showing no gaps at all
*He shows an unusual odds pattern last 3
*He nearly won at a higher level 3 back
*Went way up in class & nearly pulled it off @ 17-1
*Last he dropped way down--and strangely ran his worst race
*He also switched to 7F last--not his normal sprint dis.
*Off that worst race last--today he's up in class.
*Jockey Franco stays aboard today
*Lastly--he's been racing regularly--but shows a workout since last race....but none before that since March.


If the stable is in fact setting this horse up today--we may not get anywhere near that sweet 8-1 ML. Also this horse is looking like a hanger-deluxe.....so beware of that as well.

Good luck

-NCG

NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-21-2017, 08:10 AM   #3532
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Top-4 ABILITY 8TH BIBBO 10-1 (he's actually 5th but close enough)

E-1 PLAY is also 8TH BIBBO 10-1

BEL
2ND GAME GIRL 7-2
3RD ACKERET 8-1
6TH COOKIE CRISP 15-1
8TH BIBBO 10-1
9TH JEANNE'S SPEIGHT 12-1


And for Santa Anita fans--the infamous 1-2-3 method selections -from PONYPICKER completely free of charge for your wagering pleasure


Last edited by NorCalGreg; 05-21-2017 at 08:17 AM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-21-2017, 08:22 PM   #3533
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Damn......just got DQ'd out of an easy Pick-3 @ SA. PACIFIC HEAT won by daylight in the 9th--but they took him all the way down. There went $160


ACCEPTED: 27dac-b63f1 SA #7 $1 Pick-3 3, 4, 6, WT, 1, 3, 5, WT, 1 none -$9.00
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-21-2017, 08:36 PM   #3534
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Last results to be posted with this $25 program.

If you're still not convinced--you never will be.



*good luck--NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 05-21-2017 at 08:38 PM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-22-2017, 01:22 AM   #3535
timtam
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: eastern pennsylvania
Posts: 882
I think you short-changed yourself. Tizz No Bluff won the second race for

another $3.20. Actually hit the pick 3 for $99.40 races 2,3,4 pk 3 was 2 1 2

Another good job
timtam is offline  
Old 05-22-2017, 02:51 AM   #3536
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by timtam View Post
I think you short-changed yourself. Tizz No Bluff won the second race for

another $3.20. Actually hit the pick 3 for $99.40 races 2,3,4 pk 3 was 2 1 2

Another good job
I actually did play that one as well....A $9 ticket only paid $49 so I didn't mention it.

COMPLETED: df67e-ba0c1 SA#2 $1 Pick-3 2, WT, 1, 4, 6, WT, 2, 3, 4 none $9.00 $49.70 +$40.70

You know I'm not a big-time player...was just talking with Randall and mentioned I estimated I would need about a 50K bankroll--to comfortably become a pick-6 player.

My program has hit two 17K pick-6's in the last two weeks--which sounds wonderful----except I don't have that kind of money for a starting bankroll. I got a mortgage, wife and kids still living at home.
I did find a fun and profitable way to play pick-3's...with very little cash outlay. I break out the "big guns" for win bets.

Use whatever tools you have--I know you have EXOTIC BETS---look at the CONSENSUS and find an overwhelming favorite (by point total). You have PLATINUM...check BEST BETS. Check PONYPICKER if you have it.

You just want to be sure your "key" horses selected are probably going to win.

This flies in the face of the "pro" method of AVOIDING tickets with the favorite.

Well....I'm not a pro! I just want to hit a few, have some fun....and increase my bankroll a little bit. Truth be told--I may get into exotics-betting on a grander scale when I give the software-development business up.

BTW...I talked with Mike Perucci today, of TheeTopThree. He has some health issues and just folded up shop. I asked about obtaining the rights to TTT...but apparently there are some complications with that---so it's a no go. Always liked that program. I wish him the best--great guy.

Okay so I play Belmont and Santa Anita because of the rolling pick-3's. Find one or two hopefully "locks"...and check the races before and after. You see a couple price horses in a 3-race sequence containing your "lock"....and there you go. Find your other horses in the same place you found the "key" horse.

The 2nd race TIZ NO BLUFF was an obvious choice for the single...I was a little unlucky the 3rd race winner was also an overwhelming favorite--because the 4th race--a longshot won.

My other single was the 9th race PACIFIC HEAT...I took the top 3
in the 7th and 8th to make my 3x3x1 $9 pick-3.

I conceivably could have won maybe $500 if things had broken a little better for me. I don't blame the stewards, jockeys, starter or anyone else for the DQ----it happens.

So you can play a couple 1x3x3 = $9.00 total -pick-3's --at both tracks without having to sweat a large cash outlay.

My horse I spent an hour on ACKERET....was scratched. I think the horse's connections read it in PA. and said

"Oh sh*t......NorCal's on to us, boys---the jig is up--scratch that horse"


....or maybe it was just a coincidental vet scratch like Equibase reported

My other four Bel longshots didn't come in. I'm going to start keeping my ROI for horses posted--LOL wish I could start last week I'll start tomorrow---NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 05-22-2017 at 02:54 AM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-22-2017, 06:39 AM   #3537
biggestal99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
T

I was playing the x yesterdayat Monmouth.. As everyone knows I bet low power and low ability horses to lose with great effectiveness. Yesterday 6th was an exception. I sill bet against kellylilsecret at 6.00, however I could not help but notice that stylish notion had both top ability and top power number and we sitting at 22.00 on the x. Bet the horse to win......horrors. I almost never back a horse anymore.

Of course I wasn't grousing at hitting a 22.00 horse wire to wire.

I never am not going to change the way I play, but an occasional win bet on a really good play won't kill me. Lol.

My Thanks to Greg and his wonderful software.

Allan
biggestal99 is offline  
Old 05-22-2017, 09:53 AM   #3538
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Thank you Allan...you're a Prince



The following are horses that are 5-1+ on the EXOTIC BETS! CONSENSUS...and are ranked #1
I'd like to compare the winners and see if there is a "screen" I can use to pare down the list--and raise the ROI...which is unknown at this time. Hopefully, we can get this to near profitability.

FLX
1ST AWESOME NEWS 5-1
4TH MAJESTIC MALLISA 8-1
5TH CATACLYSMIC 10-1
8TH HAUDENOSAUNEE 6-1

LAD
4TH LIL BECKY 12-1

MNR
3RD RICO SUAVE 6-1
4TH SOMETHING NAUGHTY 5-1
5TH SURFIN BIRD 6-1
6TH MIKE'S BENCHMARK 6-1

PID
1ST CAPABLANCA 8-1
4TH CEE 'N O 8-1
7TH CARSON'S TEN 9-2

TDN
2ND JUST A MINUTE 5-1
7TH SHUTTER SHOCK 8-1


---------------------------------------------------------------------

These are my humble selections for today:

PID
1ST COWGIRLS PRAY 8-1
7TH COZY KITTEN 8-1

FLX
5TH CHUBBY MASTER 6-1
7TH COZY KITTEN 8-1

LAD
1ST PROUD MONEY 10-1
6TH SMILEY BRILEY 8-1
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 05-22-2017, 12:46 PM   #3539
Cice
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Thank you Allan...you're a Prince



The following are horses that are 5-1+ on the EXOTIC BETS! CONSENSUS...and are ranked #1
I'd like to compare the winners and see if there is a "screen" I can use to pare down the list--and raise the ROI...which is unknown at this time. Hopefully, we can get this to near profitability.

FLX
1ST AWESOME NEWS 5-1
4TH MAJESTIC MALLISA 8-1
5TH CATACLYSMIC 10-1
8TH HAUDENOSAUNEE 6-1

LAD
4TH LIL BECKY 12-1

MNR
3RD RICO SUAVE 6-1
4TH SOMETHING NAUGHTY 5-1
5TH SURFIN BIRD 6-1
6TH MIKE'S BENCHMARK 6-1

PID
1ST CAPABLANCA 8-1
4TH CEE 'N O 8-1
7TH CARSON'S TEN 9-2

TDN
2ND JUST A MINUTE 5-1
7TH SHUTTER SHOCK 8-1


---------------------------------------------------------------------

These are my humble selections for today:

PID
1ST COWGIRLS PRAY 8-1
7TH COZY KITTEN 8-1

FLX
5TH CHUBBY MASTER 6-1
7TH COZY KITTEN 8-1

LAD
1ST PROUD MONEY 10-1
6TH SMILEY BRILEY 8-1
I believe your r7 selection at FLX is incorrect.
Cice is offline  
Old 05-22-2017, 02:24 PM   #3540
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cice View Post
I believe your r7 selection at FLX is incorrect.
they might make it to PID but the're going to have to hurry.
green80 is offline  
Closed Thread





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:13 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.